bitcoin has managed a relief bounce after falling below $60,000 on Friday, but a bounce and a bullish revival are two very different things. The latter depends on a couple of key price levels, according to analysts.
“The market has become oversold enough for strong relief rallies to occur, especially if inflation data softens and ETF outflows slow,” analysts at HEX Trust said in an email. “But the difference between a relief rally and a regime change is acceptance… BTC needs [to retake] “Between $79,000 and $80,000.”
In other words, anything below $80,000 would be considered a corrective bounce within the broader bear market that began last year. Only one step further would signal the beginning of a new advance.
According to some observers, his stance may be too cautious.
“Technically, a recovery to $68,000 could be seen as a rebound from the bearish momentum seen between May 11 and June 5,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, hinting at a lower price level for the bulls to beat.
A rebound even to these levels depends on ETF flows and macroeconomic factors. The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have processed more than $5 billion in redemptions in the past four weeks. On Monday, investors withdrew another $91 million, according to data source SoSoValue.
These outflows must reverse significantly for the bitcoin price to gain bullish momentum. Additionally, US inflation data on Wednesday is likely to be weaker than expected, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Data is expected to show the cost of living surpassed 4% in May, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
“The constructive path is conditional: inflation softens, Treasury yields stabilize, AI stocks stop de-risking, BTC/ETH ETF outflows slow, and the market recovers key technical levels. Until then, the conclusion is deliberately simple: below the recovery, there is no regime change,” Hex Trust said. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trend?
Today’s sign
The chart displays hourly bitcoin price swings in candlestick format along with the MACD histogram in the bottom panel, which shows trend changes and strength.
Prices are currently trading near a trend line, which represents the mini bounce from Friday’s low. A break of this trend line would mark the end of the bounce and open the way for a possible test of the recent lows.
The negative MACD histogram suggests that bearish momentum is strong, meaning trendline support may not last long.
