Bitcoin is trading near a level it has typically reached only late in bear markets, and has remained there even after the highest US inflation in three years.
Data from Checkonchain shows that BTC fell close to its 200-week average, a rough four-year trend line observed by long-term holders. The model places Bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, a zone that has appeared only during the deepest parts of past bear markets.
Bear market bottoms are a process, not an event.
First, price-sensitive investors capitulate. Then comes the most difficult phase: months of lateral action that little by little erode the conviction of those who remain.
In our latest newsletter article, @_Checkmatey_ examines the evidence… pic.twitter.com/ReSQFfqi5R
– _Checkonchain (@_checkonchain) June 10, 2026
The mood in the market is also dull. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a measure of sentiment calculated using volatility, social media posts and market volumes, sits at 9, mired in extreme fear, up from 11 last week and 48 a month ago.
Those readings typically appear when price-sensitive sellers have already made most of their sales. Checkonchain still warns that funding is a process where capitulation comes first, followed by months of sideways trading that exhausts remaining holders.
Bitcoin briefly broke below $60,000 this week for the first time since 2024 and changed hands at $62,623 on Thursday, up 1.9% on the day but down throughout the week, with a record streak of ETF outflows still withdrawing money.
The rebound was wide but shallow. Ether rose 1.4% to $1,651, BNB added 1.3% to $595, Solana gained 0.9% to $65 and dogecoin added 1.1% to $0.085. XRP was the laggard, down 0.3% to $1.12. All of them remain lower in the last seven days, led by ether with 6.5% and XRP with 7.5%. Thursday’s gains dented the weekly decline rather than reversing it.
Inflation does not contribute to a quick recovery. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5% in May from April and 4.2% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace since early 2023, as the Iran war raised energy costs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday.
The core measure, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%, less than economists expected, the only weak point in an otherwise red-hot report.
“Hopes for regulatory clarity in the US have faded again, and Polymarket’s odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 fell from 62% to 48% this week,” Yves Renno, head of trading at global crypto payments platform Wirex, told CoinDesk.
“All eyes now turn to the FOMC on June 16-17, and Warsh’s tone will be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin rebounds towards $68,000-$72,000 or falls below $60,000 entirely.”
Meanwhile, the pressure goes far beyond cryptocurrencies. Global stocks fell this week to their lowest level in more than a month as a technology-driven sell-off deepened and US forces attacked multiple targets in Iran, collapsing a ceasefire that had held since April.
MSCI’s All Country World Index, the broadest measure of global stocks, fell to its lowest level since May 5, and its Asia Pacific gauge fell 0.8% to a three-week low. Brent crude rose 1.8% to around $95 a barrel. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates on Thursday for the first time since September 2023, and bond traders are pricing in higher borrowing costs around the world.
