Elon Musk’s SpaceX today prices its Friday initial public offering on Nasdaq. While the company is currently valued at approximately $1.77 trillion, blockchain-based pre-IPO price discovery derivatives and prediction markets seem to think it is too low.
That gap is evident in three markets: Onchain perpetual futures offered by Ventuals and trade.xyz, both run on Hyperliquid, and Polymarket’s implied first-day close. All of them have converged in the range of $1.8 trillion to $2.1 trillion, according to data source Allium.
Right now, traders at Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, assign a 64% chance of SpaceX closing its first day of trading above a $2 trillion valuation. A closing above 3 billion dollars? Polymarket gives a 5% chance.
In other words, the market expects a strong debut, but not an explosion.
For bitcoin traders, the IPO serves as real-world proof of the dominant narrative: that supply has been draining risk capital from cryptocurrencies, contributing to the recent price decline.
If that theory holds, capital should flow back into bitcoin and cryptocurrencies once the IPO is over and the initial allocation frenzy subsides. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trend?
Today’s sign
The chart compares daily bitcoin price movements to Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures since March.
The strong positive correlation between the two was broken in May, when the Nasdaq rallied sharply while bitcoin fell. However, the Nasdaq is down this month, hinting at a possible realignment.
The key question is whether Bitcoin can remain stable (having absorbed significant losses) in the face of a possible Nasdaq sell-off. Trading firm Wintermute noted last year that the correlation between the two assets is particularly strong during Nasdaq declines. If that dynamic still holds, BTC risks falling below $60,000.
