The win rate of a cycle-aware approach is lower than buy-and-hold, and you win not by being right more often, but by avoiding months where bitcoin loses 20%, 30%, or 40%. Those months are grouped together, and stepping aside during them is not timing the market; It is about reading the cyclical structure of the asset.
We have made three time-stamped public market calls since 2022: the October 2022 cycle low, the July 2023 projection of a $125,000 target, and the October 2025 bearish signal, each based on the same signal framework. The methodology is not infallible. But it is systematic, auditable, and structurally more suited to the cyclical nature of bitcoin than the passive approach most advisors currently implement.
Bitcoin rewards those who understand its cycle. Advisors who treat it like any other asset are leaving risk-adjusted returns on the table and exposing clients to drawdowns that effectively wipe out portfolios rather than weather them.
– Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research
ask an expert
If blockchain technology is successful, do investors own the right thing?
For years, investors assumed that if a blockchain ecosystem grew, its native token would naturally appreciate. Increasingly, I’m not convinced that’s always true. Technology can become indispensable as value accumulates elsewhere: sequencers, apps, stablecoin issuers, or liquidity layers.
