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Spain’s 1-0 victory on Friday night perhaps put a damper on a couple of teams’ World Cup plans.
The victory over Uruguay gave Spain the Group H title, meaning they will play the winner of the final group match between Austria and Algeria on Saturday night.
Spain is a soccer powerhouse, ranking as the third best FIFA program in the world, and would be a big favorite over Austria (22nd) and Algeria (29th).
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Austria and Algeria could benefit from not winning their final group stage match (Dean Mouhtaropoulos, Charlotte Wilson/Getty Images)
That’s why both teams could benefit from not winning on Saturday night.
We have already mentioned that Spain will face the winner of the match as second in Group J. So, for Algeria, a draw is easily the best scenario.
In the event of a tie, Algeria would secure a place in the knockout round as third place in Group J and would face Belgium, Switzerland, England or Ghana. However, a defeat means almost certain elimination, so tread carefully.
His path will be much clearer when he takes the field at 10 p.m. ET in Kansas City, but for now, The Athletic gives Algeria less than a 1% chance of advancing with a loss. If the previous games go in your favor early, the probability increases to only 9%.
Riyad Mahrez and the Algeria starting lineup pose before the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group J match against Jordan at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara, California, on June 22, 2026. (Photos by Erin Chang/ISI)
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Austria’s situation is a little different, as one loss does not kill it completely. But since a win or draw means facing Spain, it could simply be to wait for a loss and advance through tie-breaks, which, again, will become clearer as the day progresses.
At the time of writing, Austria has a 38% chance of advancing with losses. That percentage would reach 65% with a Ghana win at 5 pm ET, and then 72% with an Uzbekistan win or draw against the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 7:30 pm ET.
However, if Ghana loses or draws Croatia, and then the Democratic Republic of the Congo wins, Austria would be eliminated with a defeat. So they would have to accept their fate, try to win or draw and worry about Spain later.
Austria supporters applaud at Dallas Stadium during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group J match between Argentina and Austria on June 22, 2026, in Dallas, Texas. (Images by Torbjorn Tande/DeFodi)
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A quick summary: Algeria wants to draw because a victory means facing Spain, and a loss is practically equivalent to elimination. Austria may have to reluctantly approach the situation rather than rely on tiebreakers, but their true interest and perhaps effort level for the game will be known at 10 p.m. ET.
All of this means that Algeria scoring a late own goal to benefit may not be out of the question.
