The seasonal pattern usually occurs in the opposite direction. In all of bitcoin’s history, the fourth quarter has been the strongest by a wide margin, with an average gain of 77% with a median close to 48%, the stretch that has repeatedly saved mediocre years.
The third quarter is the opposite, the weakest quarter on average and often flat. In other words, the schedule would normally argue for a quiet third quarter and a strong finish to the fourth. In 2018 and 2022, that seasonal strength failed. The bear market overrode the calendar and the fourth quarter, normally the best, became one of the worst.
A sample of two can say little on its own, and both years led to specific crashes that have no exact equivalent today. The comparison doesn’t mean that 2026 should follow 2018 or 2022, but it does mean that the only times Bitcoin started a year so weakly, the weakness was a symptom of something structural rather than a passing drop.
Whether 2026 falls into that category depends on what’s driving sales, and the drivers seem more like effort than panic.
US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen record outflows over the past month, the number of active on-chain users has remained near the low end of their range, and capital has steadily rotated into AI stocks, which just posted their best quarter in years as cryptocurrencies tumbled.
