bitcoin fell on Tuesday after posting a six-day winning streak, the longest since March. Earnings, in any case, appeared fragile when viewed through the lens of various indicators.
The most followed is Coinbase Premium, which tracks the difference between the price of bitcoin on the American exchange Coinbase (COIN) and Binance. According to data source Coinglass, it has already been negative for fifty consecutive days.
That means that for nearly two months, BTC has been cheaper on Coinbase than Binance, which does not operate in the U.S. The discrepancy is an indicator of relatively weak demand in the world’s largest economy, a message underscored by eight consecutive weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds. Historically, bull runs have featured consistently positive Coinbase premiums.
Another worrying trend is seen in Japan, where bond yields cannot stop rising. The 10-year bond rose today to a 30-year high, raising borrowing costs in the US, UK and Germany. A continued rally, particularly in Treasury yields, could create a headwind for BTC.
While seasonality supports the continued recovery, it is ETF flows that matter most, according to analysts.
