Average claims rose to 10.3% of shares from 9.7% in the first quarter, but varied widely (1.3%–38.1% in Blue Owl’s OTIC), Fitch said. Many requests were complementary from investors who were only partially satisfied last quarter. New inflows fell by about 56% on average, so most funds recorded net outflows of about 3% of the previous quarter’s net asset value.
The worrying thing, for private credit, is that Fitch expects repayments to continue in the coming months.
“As BDCs cap refunds at 5% quarterly, unfulfilled claims will lead to persistently high refunds for many companies in the coming quarters,” the ratings agency Fitch warned.
Same story, different structures.
Bitcoin ETFs are liquid, exchange-traded vehicles, where outflows directly impact the BTC spot price. Private credit BDCs are the opposite: long-duration, illiquid lending vehicles with built-in quarterly accesses.
Still, the fact that investors rushed out of both at the same time points to greater caution around liquidity and risk appetite.
Amid all this, energy markets continue to send signals of risk aversion, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983. Therefore, if the energy market remains disrupted, the government now has much less room to flood the market with oil and keep prices low.
