The cryptocurrency market rose another leg on Friday with bitcoin trading at $64,400, up 2% since midnight UTC.
The largest cryptocurrency is currently at the price it failed to break through on Monday. If it can break above this level, it will likely move towards the June 15 high of $67,250.
Ether (ETH) outperformed bitcoin, rising 2.6% to $1,790, as it looks to break a trend of sequential lower highs and lower lows.
There were also notable gains across the altcoin sector ahead of the weekend, which is typically a period of lower liquidity. Zcash (ZEC) and aave both are up about 5% as optimism slowly returns to more speculative bets after months of waning sentiment.
Cryptocurrencies diverged from US stocks, with S&P 500 index futures and Nasdaq 100 futures falling 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively.
Derivatives positioning
- Crypto derivatives markets are showing signs of stabilization, with speculation decreasing and long-term positioning increasing.
- 24-hour volume fell 7% to $140 billion, while open interest (OI) rose 3% to $110.52 billion. This shift suggests that the recovery is being driven more by strategic positioning than high-frequency speculative activity.
- The cumulative OI in USD and USDT denominated bitcoin futures on major exchanges has increased slightly, from 262,000 to 272,000, as the spot price surpassed $64,000. When read in conjunction with positive funding rates and positive 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD), rising OI indicates a growing bias for bullish bets.
- Ether has yet to see a significant increase in futures OI, a sign that traders are still staying away from leverage.
- In the broader market, most tokens have positive 24-hour CVDs, a sign that buyers are becoming more aggressive and trading market orders rather than passive limit orders. This raised expectations of continued price increases in the future.
- Confirming signals come from options-based implied volatility indices tied to BTC and ETH, which continue to fall. It is a sign that traders expect calm in the market, a characteristic of rallies. The BTC index, BVIV, fell to 38.5 early today, the lowest level since June 6.
- In the Deribit options market, selling biases continue to weaken as the price rally eases downside concerns. Call options at $62,000, $65,000, and $67,000 are among the most traded instruments, along with puts at $56,000. A call represents a bullish bet on the market.
