Veteran trader Peter Brandt anticipates a peak between $300,000 and $500,000. Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra expect prices to reach $500,000 by 2029, citing growing demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Reality check
However, while four-year cycles have consistently produced new all-time highs, the reality of this cycle is different.
As Bitcoin grows, matures, and becomes more valuable, much more capital is needed to push it significantly further. The history of cycle maximums demonstrates it:
- 2013: $266
- 2017: almost ~$20,000 (75x previous high)
- 2021: ~$69,000 (3.5x more than 2017)
- 2025: $126,000 (only 1.8 times more than in 2021)
What this means is that bull runs are becoming more consistent, with more measured gains rather than moonshots. If this trend continues, the next peak may be well below the expected levels of between $300,000 and $500,000. (A rally to $300,000 or more requires more than doubling the jump from the 2025 high)
However, this is not necessarily bad news.
As noted above, the larger the asset becomes, the more capital is required to drive it up. And with the institutionalization of the market and an increasing range of advanced risk management products, such as bitcoin ETF futures, options, volatility bets, arbitrage funds and structured products with integrated options, BTC is naturally becoming less volatile and more like Wall Street.
