Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at Fidelity, says bitcoin is approaching the lower edge of the model he has used to track it for years.
That model is the power law, which plots bitcoin’s entire price history on a logarithmic chart bounded by three curves: an upper resistance line, a middle trend line, and a lower support line that has trapped every major low since 2015.
On Timmer’s latest chart, the support line is near $58,000, and bitcoin, at around $62,700, is approaching it.
The bottom panel is where you expect buildup. It tracks the extent to which Bitcoin is trading above or below the power-law trend line, and that gap has ranged as high as negative 56%, a depth the chart calls the accumulation zone and which lines up with the lows of 2018 and 2022. The 52-week reading on the bitcoin-gold ratio has fallen just as far, to around negative 100%.
Timmer has not yet announced a fund. He has said that the speculative premium that drove bitcoin above $120,000 last year has largely disappeared, that global money supply growth is slowing and that he sees no catalyst for a reversal until liquidity returns.
