Bitcoin traded near $62,600 on Tuesday, down 0.3% in 24 hours and roughly unchanged for the week, according to data from CoinDesk. The market remains stable on the surface, but the underlying macroeconomic context has changed.
President Trump reimposed the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% tariff on all other cargo moving through the waterway, reviving a conflict that a June peace deal appeared to resolve.
Brent crude rose as much as 2.8% to around $85 a barrel, its second day of gains, and traders increased bets on a Fed rate hike.
That combination goes directly against cryptocurrencies. Rising oil is fueling the inflationary pressure that kept the Federal Reserve aggressive throughout June, and the relief of that pressure was largely what allowed bitcoin to recover from its late June lows near $58,000. The peace deal is now weakening and the chances of rate hikes are rising again.
Bitcoin has spent a month between about $59,000 and $66,000, and the majors are mixed. Ether held near $1,783 and rose throughout the week, while Solana, XRP, and Hyperliquid fell 5% or more in seven days.
Today’s June inflation data is the most immediate proof. A soft figure would ease the pressure on rate hikes that the Iran news has just revived. A hot situation, especially with rising oil, would add a second hawkish signal to the first, two weeks before the Federal Reserve meets on July 28-29.
