At the beginning of the year, Coindesk Research indicated that the dollar index (DXY) a measure of the fortress of the US dollar against a basket of the main commercial partners was reflecting his career of Donald Trump’s first mandate as president.
Between September 2024 and January 2025, coinciding with the re -election of Trump, the DXY index rose from 100 to 110. This current cycle, the index reached its maximum point in 110 in mid -January, but since then it has fallen below 105 for the first time since mid -November. If the DXY fell to around 103, he would erase all his profits from Trump’s victory in November.
In general, a DXY index above 100 is considered strong, which tends to press risk assets. However, as the index fell below 105, Bitcoin (BTC) increased above $ 88,000.
A similar pattern was observed in 2017 when the DXY fell from 103 to less than 90, coinciding with Bitcoin’s Bull Run that year, which saw it at the best at $ 20,000 in December.
Despite this, macroeconomic uncertainty persists, with the concerns surrounding tariffs, inflation and GDP growth of the United States. The economy seems to be decreasing and the Friday job report is expected to show a continuation of 4.0% unemployment rate.
If the report is weaker than expected, treasure yields could continue to decrease, which increases the probability that the Federal Reserve may consider a reduction of rates at its March meeting.
