If you plan to disconnect from trade screens this weekend, think twice. The analysis of the Commercial firm of Digital Assets STS Digital suggests that the Cryptographic Summit of the White House on Friday could lead to greater activity.
The president of the United States, Donald Trump, who promised a strategic cryptography reserve in the period prior to the November elections, will receive the best actors in the industry, including Coinbase, Chainlink and Exodus.
The last rumor suggests that at the Summit, Trump can announce the creation of a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, moving away from Sunday’s dissemination that hinted at the Altcoins basket such as XRP, Cardano “S Ada and Solana (Sun) along with BTC and Ethher (Eth) as the nucleus.
The price of BTC, ETH and Sun options in Delibit suggests that merchants are preparing for a volatile weekend after the summit.
“The options markets show that the nerves (and illiquidity) go to the weekend and the potential series. Friday vs Saturday IV [implied volatility] The propagation is almost 25 vols wide in all areas, with the maturities of Friday missing the expected variation, “said Jeff Anderson, head of Asia in Digital STS, Coindesk.
Implicit volatility, a metric derived from the price of options, indicates how much operators expect the price of asset to fluctuate during a specific period. The options are derived contracts that give the buyer the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date.
The morning of Thursday, the bitcoin options that expire on Friday suggested an annualized implicit volatility of 56%, while those who expired on Saturday quoted a volatility of 80%. The 24 -point gap indicates expectations for greater price turbulence after Friday’s summit.
A similar pattern was observed in the ether and solana options.
The table shows implicit and advanced volatilities for BTC, ETH and Sol and Straddle Breakevens (expected price swings).
The direct volatility is calculated by comparing the implicit volatility of the options with different maturities and indicates the expected volatility during the period between the two expiration dates specified, in this case, Friday and Saturday.
The volatility of 105% of BTC forward translates into a price movement of 5.5% expected between Friday 08:00 UTC and Saturday 08:00 UTC. (Deribit options expire at 08:00 UTC).
In other words, BTC could balance almost $ 5K in any direction after the summit. ETH and Sun volatilities are setting a $ 135 and $ 13 movement, respectively.
According to Anderson, expectations for great volatility often end up disappointed.
“Very often, a great expected volatility as this is a disappointment in cryptography as expectations> reality. That said, breakcoming do not feel great and the options are, with much, the safest game for the directional views in this environment,” Anderson said, pointing to the risks involved in taking directional bets in the options that expire on March 14.
“We would expect the prices of the options to be lower to increase after the event as the fears decrease and volatility declines,” Anderson said.
