The bullish feeling seen after Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections of November 5 has completely vanished, according to an indicator linked to CME Bitcoin’s futures (BTC).
The indicator in consideration is the propagation between “continuous” next month and the trade of future standard BTC of the first month in the giant of global derivatives. A continuous contract is a calculated representation of a series of futures contracts that expire successively, allowing a series of continuous historical data for the analysis.
The differential has been reduced to $ 495, the lowest since November 5, after a reach of $ 1,705 on December 17, according to Data Source TradingView. In other words, Trump’s blow has completely reversed in a sign of weakening the upward feeling in the market.
“The narrowing of the extension between the Bitcoin futures of CME of the first month and of the coming months could suggest that the merchants are moderating their price expectations,” said Thomas Erdösi, head of products of CF Benchmarks, to COINDESK.
The unwilling of Trump’s coup probably means that the market has overcome the narration that a pro-crypto president in the White House is good for the industry, and macro correlations are back in the driver’s seat.
“What we can see is that the basis of the frontal contract has repressed substantially lower since the beginning of March, which indicates the short -term expectations that the primary catalyst for the recent rally, the election of President Trump, has had a total price,” said Eridosi.
That is already happening. Both BTC and the technological index of Wall Street, Nasdaq, have fallen by 20% and 8%, respectively, since the beginning of February in a large number of factors, including geopolitical uncertainty, Trump’s tariffs and the prospects for inflation and economic growth.
In addition, the Bitcoin market had to digest disappointment due to the lack of new purchases in the Trump strategic digital asset reserve plan. Last week, Trump signed an executive order, directing a creation of a strategic reserve that includes BTC seized in compliance actions.
“The announcement about the Bitcoin strategic reserve is not what the market expected. Many expected the reservation In an email in an email.
Futures are still in count
While the differential between CME futures contracts next month and the month in front has been reduced, the entire curve remains in Account, where futures contracts with remote date (with longer maturities) are operated with a premium to almost dates.
This is how all markets are generally due to factors such as storage, financing, insurance costs and pricing expectations in the coming weeks or months.
“The fact that perpetual financing rates remain positive and the futures base is still in accounting suggests that the recent movement is driven by the hooks without shame that are squeezed, instead of a broader market contagion,” said Erdösi.
