The newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently won a leadership contest of the Liberal Party to replace Justin Trudeau, has dramatically increased his chances of winning the next federal elections in the eyes of the Polymarket tractors.
Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian elections, compared to 26% a month ago. The possibilities of the leader of the conservative opposition Pierre Poilievre are 51%, below 72% in February.
The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to occur on October 20, 2025.
However, under the Westminster system of Canada, if the conservatives of the opposition and the NDP vote jointly against the minority liberal government about a motion of trust after the Parliament resumes the extended extending on March 24, requested by Trudeau on January 6, announcing its resignation plans in slopes of a new liberal leader, the government would fall, which causes a election.
Carney closed the gap against Pailievre in Polymket, despite a delay between prediction markets and surveys, echoes what the surveys show.
The conservatives are only for a percentage point ahead of the liberals, according to the investigation of Nanos of Canadian housing, below an advantage of almost 16 points a month ago according to an average voting.
Observers accredit this dramatic change to the commercial threats of the United States, and the pollsters who indicate that Canadians prefer the commercial sense of Carney and the experience of the central bank over its opponent.
All this is a bit contrast to the US elections of last year, where prediction markets constantly demonstrated that the then republican candidate Donald Trump had an advantage over his democratic opponents.
The result of the elections, as Coindesk wrote in an editorial at that time, was just a surprise for those who obtain their CNN information.
Crypto on the path of the Canadian campaign?
Cryptography does not seem to be an important table of a Canadian hypothetical choice. While Poilievre has a BTC ETC issued by Canadian, according to the revelations, and has previously made pro-BlockChain and cryptographic comments, most of the rhetoric of the campaign seems to be about the commercial war.
Similarly, Carney, who has made mixed comments if not skeptical about cryptography in his role as governor of the Bank of England has not yet talked about the subject in his new role as a liberal leader.
