Until now, cryptographic markets have not behaved as expected under the Trump administration. Investors hoped that regulatory reform and policies as a strategic Bitcoin reserve will boost the appreciably higher prices. But the opposite has been. Bitcoin has fallen from maximums far from $ 100,000 at the beginning of the year to a channel in the mid -80,000 during most March.
Cryptography prices have suffered increasingly correlated with traditional assets such as actions and bonds, which have been beaten by macroeconomic uncertainty. The tariffs, surcharges that the United States plays in imports from other countries, have worried Wall Street for a global recession. Cryptographic investors have remained away from cryptographic assets, which are considered relatively risky.
“This is about ‘risk appetite’ of the markets that continues to deteriorate, and for the moment it becomes a wedge between cryptographic and gold assets, which continues to be the ‘safe refuge’ of choice,” said Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategy of Adm Investor Services International.
“[That’s] In large part, promoted by the reserve managers of the Central Bank FX, who seek to reduce the exposure of the USD, which for a long time has been a source of concern for them ”.
As the world financial and commercial system becomes more fragmented, investors look for alternatives to more risky assets, including dollars. For now, that means resorting to gold, which increases 18% in the year in which it will be done.
But that could change, said Omid Malekan, attached professor at Columbia Business School and author of “The Story of the Blockchain: a guide for beginners about the technology that nobody understands.” Bitcoin could be the new gold soon.
“I think everything [future] It is uncertain and somehow unknowable, because there are many transverse current and both cryptography and tariffs are new. Some people argue that Crypto is only a technological asset of risk and would be sold due to tariffs. But Bitcoin has found a base in some circles such as ‘Digital Gold’ and physical variety is raising in rates news. So what will be?
In other words, economic uncertainty could lead investors to seek Bitcoin as they have sought gold in recent months.
Another positivity note: the impact of tariffs on cryptography could be “at a price” and the worst could have already ended, said Zach Pandl, Chief of Research of Grayscale, a leading firm of cryptographic asset management.
President Trump will announce US rates on Wednesday, April 2 at 4 pm et, which is known as “day of liberation.” According to reports, it will establish “reciprocal tariffs” against 15 countries that have raised tariffs against the United States, including China, Canada and Mexico.
Pandl estimates that tariffs have so far taken a 2% discount on economic growth this year. But the day of liberation could actually stop the worst of pain that is felt in financial markets. “If we see an ad [on Wednesday] That is difficult but gradual, and focuses on the 15 countries to which they seem to aim, my expectation is that the markets will join that news, ”Pandl told Coindesk.
“Potentially, once we exceed this announcement, cryptography markets can focus on the foundations that are very positive.” Pandl said ads such as the Circle OPI would not happen if the institutions did not have a high degree of confidence in the digital asset sector and the policies that surround it.
In addition, Pandl, a former macroeconomist from Goldman Sachs, believes that tariffs will increase the appetite for the currencies that are not dollars.
“I think the tariffs will weaken the dominant role of the dollar and create space for competitors, including Bitcoin. Prices have dropped in the short term. But the first months of the Trump administration have increased my long -term condemnation for Bitcoin as a global monetary asset.”
Pendl still believes that Bitcoin will reach new maximums of all time this year, despite current pessimism around prices. “I would not have resigned from my Wall Street work if I didn’t think Bitcoin would be the long -term winner,” he said.
