The fears of recession of the United States are in the air after the tariff plan of President Donald Trump, with Polymarket and Kalshi prediction platforms that indicate that the main concerns of the economy will receive a blow.
In Polymket, a decentralized prediction platform, the possibility that the country falls into the recession this year exceeded 50% for the first time since the betting contract “recession of the United States in 2025” began to quote earlier this year. The contract shares of the contract rose to more than 50 cents of 39 cents in less than 24 hours.
The contract will resolve yes if the National Office of Economic Research (NBER) confirms a recession at any time before December 31. The other condition requires consecutive quarterly contractions in the gross domestic product.
Kalshi, a regulated prediction market with headquarters in the USA.
Financial markets tend to be prospective and can react to the increase in the probabilities of recession of the United States by sending risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and other lower cryptocurrencies. At the time of publication, future S&P 500 quoted 3% lower, pointing to a severe risk aversion on Wall Street and offering bubber signs to Bitcoin, which changed their hands to $ 83,100, 1.5% lower in 24 hours.
Radical tariffs presented on Wednesday a base rate of 10% in all imports, more high taxes in 60 nations identified as the worst criminals. China, the most affected, justified a 34%tax in addition to the existing 20%position, taking the total of 54%. Base tariffs enter into force on April 5 and the highest reciprocal rates on April 9.
While the Trump administration expects tariffs to rectify the great and persistent commercial deficits of American goods, in the short term, they could increase internal inflation and global instability. The latter could happen immediately if China, the European Union and others responded with higher rates, starting a full -fledged global commercial war.
Risky to be short duration?
Even so, some observers say that the uncertainty of the tariff could lead only to an economic deceleration instead of a complete recession.
“The threat of a greater climbing of rates remains a key concern, but our economic forecasts do not require a recession in the United States,” UBS said in a blog post. “In our base case, it is likely that a wide range of selective rates and courses leads to slower economic growth compared to last year, but they should not prevent the United States economy from expanding around 2%, its rate of historical trends, this year.”
As for financial markets, some observers say that tariffs are deception, which means that the initial risk reaction could be short -lived and quickly reversed by the expectations of the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
“Remember: the tariffs are misleading, and the big rates are very misleading,” said Joseph Wang, operator of the Fedguy.com research portal, in X, referring to its November publication that detailed how large rates would lead to more tariff cuts.
Wang argued that, although tariffs are inflationary, they can be mitigated through foreign exchange rates and, ultimately, they are transitory. Meanwhile, the damage to commercial feeling can be lasting, which leads to unemployment, which the Fed would like to avoid.
Rate merchants are already setting a greater probability that the FED reduces the cost of reference loan in June, restarting the so -called relaxation cycle that began in September last year.
