After the re -election of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, in November, optimism arose among the cryptographic companies that looked at public markets. Trump floated great promises: clearer rules for the industry and ambitions to make the United States the cryptographic capital of the world.
For a moment, it seemed that the gates could open. The opi buzzed with activity pipes. The founders dreamed of playing the opening bell. But under the surface, the storm clouds were gathering. A bullish market is the soul of the successful listings, and little planned as rocky would become the way ahead.
Circle did not wait for the perfect conditions. After years of false beginnings and regulatory hangings, the stablecoin issuer finally presented its S-1 before the United States Stock Exchange and Securities Commission (SEC) on Tuesday, taking a delayed step to become a company that quotes in the stock market.
The presentation landed with a mixture of energy and doubt. Some in the industry saw it as a bullish signal, another cryptographic heavyweight that approached public markets. Others questioned the moment. The markets are still unstable, and Circle’s path to a successful debut is far from guaranteed.
“I think Circle can set the price of its IPO and raise capital, however, it will not be easy,” said David Pakman, managing partner and head of risk investments in Coinfund. “In general, companies that are made public want to debut during solid capital markets.”
The actions have been in a free fall since Trump announced the so -called reciprocal tariffs on about 90 US commercial partners, including China and the European Union, deepening the fears of a global recession. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have dropped 11% and 17% in the year in which they will be held, respectively, marking one of the worst quarter in recent years.
As a result, the Cloudweave cloud computing firm, which was made public last month, saw a disappointing debut, despite the fact that the shares were recovered on the second day of the negotiation, since the demand of the investors of artificial intelligence companies seems to be stronger than short -term anxiety in the markets. The Klarna payment application said he stopped his OPI plan today.
But Circle not only faces the wider markets as a potential threat to its OPI. Analysts have indicated the company’s finances, which could make it difficult to attract investors.
“While I personally have tremendous respect and appreciation for Circle and its leadership, their finances show the challenges they have faced with the growth and high cost of their distribution associations,” said Pakman, who said he still believes that the company’s long -term value.
OPI’s presentation of Circle revealed that the reduced gross margins and the high expense, which occurs at a time when Stablcoin’s lighter regulation could provide greater competition to the market.
“The circle currently has a price like a traditional cryptographic business: cyclical, dependent on interest rates and not diversified enough. If Circle can evolve to resemble a network of payments with high margins and strong ghosts, its valuation could reflect that,” Lorenzo Valente, an Ark Invest crypt analyst, wrote in an X
Many aspects about the company’s structure seem to be in question, including the way in which its income exchange agreement will evolve, as well as the base growth, the blockchain created by coinbase that the USDC uses the circle, according to Valente.
“A circle of precaution has taken is a lower assessment. But, there are still obstacles, since the implementation and implementation of digital Rails in the banking system will take time,” said Mark Connors, head investments strategist in risk dimensions, a Bitcoin investment notice based in New York.
The rumored circle assessment of $ 4 billion to $ 6 billion, approximately 13 to 20 times its adjusted ebitda, is in line with coinbase and block, and “not necessarily cheap, especially taking into account its recent drop in profitability,” Valente said.
“We like the perspective of the growth of the stable backed by the United States based on the growing commercial use, the change in regulatory and legislative winds (Genius Law) and the United States Treasury incentive to find new buyers of its growing battery in the United States Bills,” according to Connors.
More than $ 6 billion of treasure invoices will be launched this year, with an additional broadcast that probably finance the still growing American deficit.
Despite the uncertainty of the market on the remaining year, several other cryptographic natives seek to fulfill their OPI dreams, including Kraken, Gemini, Blockchain.com, Bullish (the Coindesk Matrix Company) and Bitgo. It is rumored that even more cryptographic companies are in conversations so that they become public.
However, others will probably put their opi plans waiting while waiting for regulatory clarity and the best market conditions. Crypto M & A Advisory Sirring Architect Partners analysts expect most OPIs to occur in the second half of 2025 after written regulations and policies are clearly completed.
