Do not be fooled by the market change on Wednesday, which saw the ventable income point S&P 500 uploading for the majority since 2008 and significant profits in Bitcoin (BTC) and the largest cryptographic market, as represented by the Coendesk 20 index (CD20).
The demonstration, caused by the announcement of President Donald Trump of a 90 -day pause about tariffs, fed the optimism of the social networks of an imminent prolonged bull in actions and crypto. That can be too optimistic, according to Goldman Sachs analysts and elsewhere, who point out that capital prices of two two -week digits are quite common even during the largest bearish markets.
“In most bass markets, given the positioning of light, marginal changes in these variables may have amplified the effects on the markets. As a result, the manifestations of the bearish market are quite common,” said Goldman’s strategy team led by Peter Oppenheimer in a Tuesday note entitled “Omeage market anatomy: the route and the shape of the bearish market.
There have been 19 global manifestations of the bears market since the 1980s and on average, “they have lasted 44 days and the world of MSCI AC The yield is 10% to 15%, ”said the note.
“One of the worst markets in the history of history saw approximately half a dozen great manifestations of two digits before everything was said and done,” said Callum Thomas, founder and head of research at Topdown Charts, in X referring to the 1930s. “Is the 90 -day rebound a BMR?”
If the recent rebound means the beginning of a new bull race or simply a rally on the bearish market will not be clear until later. However, certain characteristics of a sustained fund mentioned by Goldman, such as attractive assessments, extreme negative positioning, political intervention and a deceleration in macroeconomic deterioration, are not yet evident.
It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve offers support in the short term, while Trump has only stopped tariffs for 90 days, which means that commercial tensions could increase again. In addition, tariffs in China continue to increase and if that is not enough, actions are not yet cheap.
