Islamabad:
Since the controversy on the construction of six channels exploded in the Indo River, the domain of the Pakistan-Nawaz Muslim League (PML-N), the ally of the parliamentarians of the Party of the Peoples of Pakistan (PPPP) has drawn a clear line in the sand: start the project or the risk of risking the collapse of the federal government.
As political tensions increase between the two main parliamentary forces, where the PPPP helped PML-n unite a government in the center, the pressing question remains: Is the threat of the PPP mere political posture or is it really prepared to disconnect?
Experts, for now, remain divided
With the PPPP and PML-N lock horns on water rights, analysts argue that the survival of the administration of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif now depends on Back-channel negotiations, initiated on April 20, and the influence of powerful stakeholders behind the scene.
The PPP has expressed strong reservations on the channel project, whose objective is to meet the irrigation needs of the green initiative of Pakistan (GPI) in the Cholistan desert. These concerns have persisted since Punjab Prime Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif, and the head of the Army staff (COAS), the general also Munir, inaugurated the project on February 15.
Since the formation of the coalition, both parties have frequently involved in what many describe as “fixed fights”, the political theater intended more for public optics than the real results.
However, the last ultimatum of the president of PPP, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, marked a remarkable deviation from the script. He explicitly asked the Government to stop the project or risk losing the support of PPP, an explicit threat that could put the already fragile federal configuration on their knees.
The warning worked as a supreme PML-N Nawaz Sharif and Prime Minister Shehbaz quickly instructs the party officials to start the dialogue before the situation was controlled. The conversations opened formally.
The first meeting between both sides remains pending.
However, experts see the PPP challenge as more about self -preservation than the dynamics of the coalition. With its drastically reduced national footprint, Sindh remains the final bastion of the party, a redoubt that cannot afford to lose.
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency of Pakistan (Pildat), and race Ahmad Rumi, an analyst and policy journalist, believe that the betrayal of water rights could paralyze PPP in their heart and that they cannot afford.
Mehboob said that a party that once ruled the Federation and the four provinces is now cornered in Sindh. The province is the basis of power of the party, and any threat to it is a red line for PPP, he said.
He pointed out that PPP may or may not have initially indicated its acceptance of the Cholistan channel project.
However, the tide has revolved since then. The appearance of a fervent movement against the channels in Sindh has tied in the hands of the game, which makes it difficult to provide an opportunity window to its opponents in Sindh to capture its last base.
“PPP will go to any extent to convince PMLN and the establishment to eliminate or at least defer the channel project,” said Mehboob, adding “but if it cannot succeed, it may have to dissociate itself from support to the federal government.”
Rumi seconded Mehboob to the extent that the party initially read the project, pointing out that, although initially it gave green light to the Canals project, a U turning was inevitable once it was reduced in a matter of national identity of Sindhi.
The party backed into its initial position and joined the car of public activism on the subject.
That said, Rumi added a warning: despite the noise, it is unlikely that PPP renounce the coalition in Islamabad, given its current level of comfort in terms of shared power with the establishment and PML-N.
The PPP certainly has the key to demolishing this government, he said, noting that the government needs its key votes to survive. “But it should be emphasized that the federal coalition was gathered by the establishment.”
“And any change would be directed by them,” said the analyst.
