- Fraudulent returns are no longer rare, they are a growing epidemic that drains billions of merchants
- Third parties fraud is booming because bank applications make it easy to lie and gain reimbursements
- MasterCard says that companies face 324 million returns by 2028 if nothing changes rapidly
Fraudulent returns are quickly becoming an important financial and operational burden for global companies, warned new research.
A study sponsored by MasterCard made by INSIGHTS data estimates that sellers will lose $ 15 billion for fraudulent returns in 2025.
It is projected that the total volume of return returns will reach $ 33.79 billion this year and increase to $ 41.69 billion by 2028. These fraudulent disputes have long -range implications that affect everyone, from merchants to consumers.
Digital growth comes with new risks
The increase in digital and card transactions does not present that online purchases are faster and easier, but it has also done more vulnerable. More purchases made through electronic commerce platforms mean more charge claims.
Ironically, 45% of position returns come from “first part” claims, where valid customers fraudulently deny transactions. This is helped by the ease with which malicious actors can dispute charges through bank applications, even without solid tests.
Mastercard believes that if nothing is done quickly, there will be 324 million returns for 2028, compared to 261 million in 2025. Unfortunately, a system created to protect consumers is now abused.
Charge returns are more than a simple discomfort for online companies, particularly those that even use the best electronic commerce platform. On average, the return value for dispute for some industries exceeds $ 120.
Companies, especially SMEs, cannot handle this cost, so to save time, many sellers dismiss low value claims, but these losses increase rapidly. Now they are forced to decide whether to support the loss or invest a lot in cybersecurity and dispute resolution procedures. Anyway, they will spend more money, which will eventually lead to higher prices or even worse results.
Mastercard data shows that 46% of SMEs have experienced a cyber attack, with severe results: 18% declared bankruptcy and 17% closed completely. Cybersecurity is now considered essential, with 62% of SMEs, which makes it a priority of the higher budget and around 80% call it critic for daily operations.
The solution? Advanced AI tools. Automated alerts, clear transaction labels and detailed digital receipts allow the management of smarter disputes. Mastercard points out that companies that use these tools now earn more than half of their cases of representation, where they dispute the return returns with evidence.
Companies need to collaborate with the best providers of commercial and payment services services to stop this threat because, without intervention, costs will inevitably fall into daily buyers in the form of higher prices and a slower service.
