Arthur Hayes has a message for cryptographic investors and Bitcoin (BTC) helmets that are obsessed with the Federal Reserve policy such as the US and China, towards a commercial agreement: it is observing the wrong institution.
“The real show is in the Department of the Treasury. I ignore the Fed. It doesn’t matter,” Hayes told Coindesk in a recent interview. “Powell did not matter in 2022 under a democratic regime, and it doesn’t matter now under a Republican.”
For Hayes, the Federal Reserve has become a secondary show. The true monetary launch of the lever, he argues, is happening under the secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, who is silently remodeling the global liquidity with repurchases and auction strategies designed to administer a debt load from the United States.
That flood of liquidity, combined with the inability of the United States to control the expense, that is why Hayes says that Bitcoin is aimed at $ 1 million by 2028.
“All that matters to us is if there are more dollars in the system today than yesterday,” said Hayes. “That’s all that matters.”
But monetary policy is not the only catalyst in your opinion. Hayes also sees the geopolitics feed the fire, particularly performance commercial diplomacy between the United States and China. While the position of both sides, Hayes says that they will probably sign a treatment that looks bold on paper but does not change any substance.
“It will be a treatment on the surface,” he said. “Trump needs to show that he has been hard with China. XI needs to show that he faced the white man.”
After all, China has demonstrated with its Covid era policies, it can resist more economic pain. With politically risky rates, Hayes believes that the next movement will tax foreign investment, a quiet form of capital control aimed at reducing the United States dependence on foreign buyers without giving birth to national voters. This is how you get the American people to swallow a realignment of trade.
“The only real policy that really works are capital controls,” he said.
Potentially, there are multiple tools on the table. Not only tax bonds or foreign control actions, but the most aggressive ideas such as forced bond swaps, 10 -year -olds trade for the role of 100 years or higher tax retention on capital gains of US assets. UU.
Everything is part of a strategy to rebalance the financial account without forcing Americans to “buy less things”, a message that says that no politician can sell.
“Americans don’t like to do difficult things,” he added. “They don’t want them to tell them you have to consume less.”
China will continue to accumulate in US assets
Meanwhile, China is not going anywhere. Hayes says he has no choice but to continue buying active, even if he pretends otherwise.
“They have to obfuscate how many things are buying in the United States … but mathematically, they simply cannot stop.”
For Hayes, all this leads to only one place: more money slides through the system and bitcoin absorbs the spill.
His portfolio reflects that thesis: 60 to 65 percent in Bitcoin, 20 percent in Ethher (ETH), and the rest in what he calls “quality shit houses.”
Because? Because the market is finally looking for coins that really work.
“We are in the season of the foundations. People are tired of coins that do nothing,” said Hayes.
