The maximum records, either $ 20,000 in 2017, $ 69,000 in 2021 and $ 109,000 this year, are excellent for headlines and quick comparisons, but do not really do a great job when describing the price action.
Monitoring of the “price made”, or the average price to which Bitcoin
It is withdrawn from all exchanges to estimate a cost base throughout the market is a more valuable tool to measure the profitability of investors and possible inflection points in the feeling of the market.
The graphics (up and down) illustrate the average withdrawal prices for different investor cohorts, segmented by the year they entered the market from January 1 of each year from 2017 to 2025.
The average price made for 2025 so far is $ 93,266. With Bitcoin currently contributing to $ 105,000, these investors rise approximately 12% on average.
When Bitcoin began his decrease from the historical maximum of $ 109,000 at the end of January, he briefly fell below the price made of 2025, a historical signal of capitulation. This stress period lasted until April 22, when the price recovered the cost of cohort costs.
Historical context: capitulation patterns
Historically, when the price falls below the price of a cohort, it often marks market capitulation and cyclic funds:
- 2024: After the launch of the ETF in January, Bitcoin fell below the average cost base before the rebound. A more significant capitulation continued in the summer, linked to the transport trade was relaxed when Bitcoin fell to $ 49,000.
- 2023: The price tracked near the average cost base during support levels, only breaking briefly below the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March.
The data suggests that a capitulation phase has probably occurred, placing the market for a more constructive phase. Historically, the recoveries of such events mark transitions to healthier market conditions.
Done, do not register
When Bitcoin first exceeded $ 20,000 during the 2017 upward market, marked a significant divergence between the market price and the price of only $ 5,149, highlighting a exuberant speculation phase. As expected, prices shortly after they entered a brutal reversal.
On the contrary, due to the depths of the 2018 bear market when Bitcoin played around $ 3,200, the price at that point converged with the price made of all time, a metric that adds the cost base of all investors in the cycles.
This long -term cost base acts as a fundamental level of support in bears markets and gradually increases over time as the new capital enters the market. Therefore, evaluating Bitcoin only by comparing the peaks of the cycle, for example, of $ 69,000 in 2021 to just over $ 100,000 in 2025, loses the largest image.
The most relevant idea is that the added cost base of all investors continues to rise, underlining the long -term maturation of the asset and the growing capital depth committed to the network.
