Bitcoin
It is being quoted above $ 100,000 again, and investors, prone to the bias of the trial, can quickly assume that this event will take place as it did in December to January, when the impulse of Toro vanished, and prices quickly returned to six figures, will eventually decrease to $ 75,000.
However, according to the next six graphics, the Bitcoin market now seems more resistant than in December to January, which suggests a greater probability of a higher continuous movement.
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS: (DXY, 10y, 30 and returns vs BTC)
Financial conditions refer to various economic variables, including interest rates, inflation, credit availability and market liquidity. These are influenced by the performance of the reference government bonds, the 10 -year treasure performance of the United States, the exchange rate in dollars and other factors.
The strictest financial conditions discourage risks in financial markets and the economy, while the easiest conditions have the opposite effect.
At the time of writing, the financial conditions, represented by the 10 -year yield and the dollar index, seem much easier than in January, favoring a higher sustained movement in BTC.
At the time of the publication, the dollar index, which measures the value of Greenback against the main currencies, stood at 99.60, 9% less than the maximum higher than 109.00 in January. The yield in the 10 -year Treasury note. UU. It stood at 4.52%, 30 basic points less than a maximum of 4.8% in January.
The 30 -year yield has increased above 5%, reviewing the levels observed in January, but is considered a positive extent for Bitcoin and Gold.
More dry dust
The combined market capitalization of the two best stable of USD, USDT and USDC, has reached a record of $ 151 billion. That is almost 9% higher than the average of $ 139 billion in December to January, according to Data Source TrainingView.
In other words, a greater amount of dry dust is now available for possible investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Directional bets in bold
BTC’s Way higher since the beginning of April, the low ones about $ 75,000 are characterized by the predominantly predominant institutions that take bullish directional bets instead of arbitration bets.
That is evident for booming entries in Bitcoin Exchange (ETF) funds (ETF) that quote in the United States and the open interest still moderate in future CME BTC.
According to Data Source Velo, the notional open interest in the Bitcoin CME futures has increased to $ 17 billion, the highest since February 20. Still, it is still well below the maximum of December of $ 22.79 billion.
On the contrary, cumulative entries in the 11 ETF Spot are now in a record of $ 42.7 billion versus $ 39.8 billion in January, according to the investors of the data source.
No signs of speculative fervor
Historically, Bitcoin intermediate and main tops, including December to January, have been characterized by a speculative fervor in the broader market, which leads to a strong increase in market assessments for non -serious tokens such as Doge and Shib.
There are no such signals now, with the combined market capitalization of Doge and Shib well below its January maximums.
No signs of overheating
The Bitcoin perpetual futures market shows the demand for bullish betting, understandably, considering that BTC is quoting near records.
However, general positioning remains light, without signs of excess leverage or bullish overheating, as evidenced by financing rates that close well below the maximum seen in December.
The table shows financing rates, which refer to the cost of having betting of perpetual futures. The positive figure indicates a bias for the lengths and the arrangement among the bulls to pay shorts to maintain their open positions. It is a sign of the feeling of the upward market.
Implicit volatility suggests calm
The Bitcoin market seems much quieter this time, with the DVOL index of Deribit, which measures the expected or implicit volatility of 30 days, significantly lower than the levels observed in December to January and March of 2024, the higher prices.
The low IV suggests that merchants do not have prices in extreme price changes or uncertainty that generally exists in an overheated market, indicating a more more measured and potentially more sustainable higher trend.
