- The market expert calls GDP rebound “remarkable recovery.”
- GDP growth for fiscal year is expected between 2.5 %% 3.0%.
- SBP reduces 11% policy rate amid inflation inflation.
Karachi: Pakistan’s economy has crossed a symbolic threshold, with nominal GDP exceeding $ 400 billion for the first time, according to the provisional estimates approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC).
The Committee projected a 2.68% GDP growth for the current fiscal year, taking the size of the economy to RS114.7 billion (approximately $ 411 billion).
In its publication on LinkedIn, Sohail Mohammed, executive director of the Brokeletic firm Topline Securities, described it as a “remarkable recovery” in the midst of persistent macroeconomic aging winds. He stressed that the nominal GDP in terms of the US dollar has grown at an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% in the last five years.
The Government has established a long -term objective to become an economy of $ 1 billion for fiscal year 201035, an objective that Muhammad says will require “sustained structural reforms, political stability and disciplined management of external accounts.”
The data of the national accounts, published on Tuesday, show that the economy expands from RS105.1 billion in the fiscal year24 to RS114.7 billion in fiscal year 2015, equivalent to an increase of $ 372 billion to $ 411 billion. Quarterly growth estimates were also reviewed upwards, with GDP increasing 1.37% in Q1 and 1.53% in Q2.
Despite the improvement, the growth estimate of the FY25 does not reach the original 3.6% objective of the government. TOPLINE SECURISTIES puts an average quarterly growth during the first nine months in approximately 1.8%. Data at the sector level reflect mixed performance: agriculture grew 1.18% in the third quarter despite a recession in key crops, while industrial production contracted 1.14% due to the decrease in mining, quarry and large -scale manufacturing.
In an attempt to support the recovery, the State Bank of Pakistan reduced its policy rate at 100 basic points at 11% this month. The flexibility cycle resumed after a brief pause in March, with the Central Bank citing a more favorable inflation perspective.
Topline expects GDP growth of the whole year between 2.5%and 3.0%, and agriculture expands by 1.8%, industry in 1.0%and services by 3.4%. Meanwhile, the IMF recently trimmed its own prognosis for GDP growth for Pakistan fiscal year at 2.6%, below a prior estimate of 3.2%.
Signs of softening demand in manufacturing also arose, with the HBL Pakistan (PMI) manufacturing purchasing managing index that decreases to 51.9 in April from 52.7 the previous month, which reflects a broader uncertainty about global commercial conditions.
