Merchants on the Polymket decentralized betting platform have reduced the expectations of US military action against Iran amid reports that President Donald Trump’s team is looking to repair fences.
At the time of writing, the probability that the US will hit Iran before June 30 stood at 46%, abruptly reduced from the maximum night of 66.9%, according to the trade in the contract found in the polymer “US military action against Iran before July”.
The decrease follows an axios report that the United States is reflecting a meeting this week between American envoy Steve Witkoff and Foreign Minister Iraní Abbas Araghchi. The meeting will be aimed at exploring a diplomatic initiative that involves a nuclear agreement and an end to the Israel-Iran conflict.
However, a Polymeket user said that “Trump should join the fray: his troops need the experience in postpostmodern war”, asking for military action against Iran.
On Friday, Israel launched coordinated air attacks and attacks with unmanned airplanes in multiple sites through Iranian military and nuclear facilities, which led to a Tehran retaliation action.
Bitcoin initially fell into an instinctive reaction to $ 102,750 together with risk aversion in traditional markets, characterized by an increase in the Japanese anti-risgo and the weakness in the actions of the United States.
BTC, however, has been stabilized since then, and prices recover to operate at $ 106,700 at the time of publication. However, futures linked to S&P 500 quoted 0.7% lower.
Keep in mind that the Trump administration has not yet commented on the Axios report. In a Monday night publication on Truth Social, Trump reiterated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, asking for Tehran’s immediate evacuation.
