Good morning, Asia. This is what news is doing in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the main stories during the US hours and an overview of the movements and market analysis. To obtain a detailed description of the US markets, see Cryptokook from Coindesk America.
As your negotiation day begins, Bitcoin
It is quoted above $ 104,500 and, despite a possible imminent war in the Middle East, it has been relatively flat in the day with an insignificant market movement. In fact, during the last full week, BTC has only dropped by 2%, according to Coindesk market data.
Analysts are discussing whether the current stillness of the cryptographic market is a sign of strength or if something more precarious is underway.
Three new reports this week of Cryptocan, Glassnode and the FlowDesk commercial company point to the same surface conditions: low volatility, strict price action and modern activity in the chain. In addition, retail participation has decreased, and institutional players, from ETF to whales, are now shaping the structure of the flows.
But it is cryptocut that is showing the most urgent warning.
In his June 19 report, Cryptoquant argued that BTC could soon visit the support of $ 92,000 or even fall as low as $ 81,000 if the demand continues to deteriorate.
Punctual demand continues to increase, but well below the trend. ETF flows have decreased by more than 60% since April, while the accumulation of whales has been reduced by half. Short -term headlines, which are generally newer participants in the market, have thrown approximately 800,000 BTC since the end of May.
Its demand impulse indicator, which tracks the directional purchase force in the key cohorts, is now negatively reading 2 million BTC, the lowest in the Cryptoquant data set.
Glassnode, however, sees the same signals and reaches a much less serious conclusion.
In its weekly update in the chain, the firm acknowledges that the Bitcoin block chain is “silent”, which means that transaction counts have dropped, rates are minimal and the income of the miners are subjected.
However, this suggests that it may not be a weakness, but rather a reflection of the evolution of the network. The volume of settlement in the chain remains high, but is concentrated in transfers of great value, which suggests that the chain is being used more and more by institutions and whales.
The derivative market, the Glassnode notes, now eclipsan the activity in the chain, with futures and volumes of options that regularly exceed the place in 7x-16x.
That change has brought more sophisticated coverage, best collateral practices and a more mature market structure, although less frantic.
Flowdesk, based in France, a market manufacturer and commercial signature, has opinions that fall at some intermediate point.
While observing Altcoin flows and planes on the market, its June 19 update describes the market as “rolled”, not cracked.
Flowdesk highlights an increase in tokenized assets, such as the XAUT backed by gold (56% in volume), the growth of the stable and the increase in RWA’s activity.
For them, low volatility can simply be calm before a directional breakup, which is not necessarily down.
But in the end, no one seems to have a reliable map for what is to come.
Even Polymarket is not sure. The traigators are giving an almost equal opportunity that BTC fell to $ 90K in June or moves up to $ 115k-120k.
One thing is safe: the strip and loosen between the institutional activities and the diminishing retail demand potentially opens Bitcoin to dramatic movements on both sides of the trade, which will probably issue the next chapter of the market.
Presto Research says that Crypto Treasury Companies
A new Presto Research report argues that cryptographic treasury companies (CTC), such as Strategy and Metaplanet, are not only Bitcoin ETF of leverage, but a new form of financial engineering with less risk than many investors suppose.
The last increase in the strategy, which raised almost $ 1 billion through perpetual preferred shares, shows how BTC volatility can be used for the advantage of an issuer.
These values, together with convertible bonds and capital sales in the market, allow CTC to finance the aggressive accumulation of cryptography without triggering the risk of margin.
Presto points out that the BTC of the strategy does not apply and the Metaplanet links are not guaranteed, which means that collateral liquidation, the main trigger in past cryptographic explosions such as Celsius and three arrows, is largely absent here. That does not eliminate the risk, but changes the nature of it.
The real challenge, he argues, is not the cryptographic exposure in itself, but the discipline to manage dilution, cash flow and capital time.
The “Bitcoin” Metaplanet performance metric, which is completely diluted BTC for action, reflects that they focus on the value of shareholders.
While CTCs can manage financial mechanics behind their accumulation strategies, they will gain NAV cousins as well as high growth companies in traditional markets. But if they calculate badly, the same tools that feed their increase could accelerate their fall.
Semler Scientific Maps Bold Plan to have 105,000 BTC for 2027
Semler Scientific (Nasdaq: SMLR) has presented one of the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation route in corporate history, announcing plans to maintain 10,000 BTC at the end of 2025, 42,000 by 2026, and an amazing 105,000 at the end of 2027.
The Manufacturer of Medical Devices based in California, which turned to a Bitcoin Treasury strategy last year, is effectively dealing 24 times on its current Bitcoin stash of 4,449 coins in the next 30 months.
Plan to do it using a combination of capital increases, debt financing and operational cash flow.
But the way forward is not guaranteed. Semler’s main mechanism to acquire Bitcoin, selling new shares under his program in the market (ATM), depends on the company that quotes with a premium to its net asset value (NAV).
According to strategy monitoring data, the Semler MNAV is currently at 0.859x, which means that the market values the heritage of the company lower than its BTC holdings, effectively reducing its ability to increase credit capital.
That dynamic has made Semler a paradox in the world of Bitcoin Treasury bonds: a high conviction buyer without the premium to finance his purchase. Although Bitcoin has increased to maximum of all time above $ 100,000, Semler’s shares decreased almost 40% in the year.
Market movements:
- BTC: Bitcoin remains stuck below $ 105K despite the strong ETF tickets, with a resistance repeated to $ 105,150 and signs of institutional accumulation compensated by short -term bass impulse and macro volatility.
- ETH: Ethereum found a $ 2,490 support after a high volume sale broke key levels, with the price consolidated in a narrow range amid geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, pointing out the potential for a break if the resistance is cleaned to $ 2,510.
- Gold: The gold quoted about $ 3,366 on Thursday, little changed as the increased geopolitical tensions compensated for the pressure of the aggressive posture of the Fed, while Platinum retired after reaching a maximum of about 10 years; American markets remained closed for June.
- Nikkei 225: Nikkei 225 of Japan opened 0.24% more than the highest Friday, since the Asia-Pacific markets were mostly raised before the main decision of China’s loans and in the middle of the current tensions of Israel-Iran.
In another part of Crypto:
