The American poet Charles Bukowski said: “The crowd is always bad”, and his words seem to perfectly summarize the situation in financial markets.
Only 24 hours ago, social networks were full of fears that the United States air attack in Iran’s nuclear sites, combined with Iran’s conversation reflecting at the close of the hormuk narrow, will trigger a massive increase in oil prices, which will lead to a fall in actions and cryptocurrencies.
Reality, however, has turned out to be different. Petroleum prices on both sides of the Atlantic obtained more than 3% and since then have erased most of the profits, according to Data Source TrainingView.
When writing, a Brent Oil barrel changed from hands to $ 77, only 1.4% for the day. The prices obtained more to reach a maximum of five months of $ 77.79. Similarly, the intermediate crude of western Texas (WTI) reached a maximum of $ 78.58 before returning to $ 76.75.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin
The leading cryptocurrency by market value has increased above $ 101,000, since the minimums of less than $ 98,000 on Sunday when the fears of a oil price peak led to the BTC that quotes in short -term abandonment, the operations of a volatility premium of 8% -10% to the calls. Futures linked to S&P 500 quoted only 0.3% lower.
The reaction to a large extent silenced in oil prices suggests that the market does not expect them to continue its threats and block the hormuz narrow, which could destabilize its key allies in Asia, particularly in China.
“The price action this morning suggests that the market does not believe (at least not yet) that the flows through hormuz will be blocked. Brent returns below $ 80/BBL after a briefly exceeding this level before in the negotiation session,” ING analysts said in a report to customers on Monday.
“With more than 80% of oil flows through hormuz that ended in Asia, the impact on the region would be greater than that of the United States. Therefore, I would like to be careful when altering China’s tastes by interrupting oil flows,” Ing added.
According to the expert in the energy market Anas Alhajji, Iran’s threat to close the Strait is largely a rhetorical tactic for domestic consumption, which has used at least 15 times since the 1980s. Alhajji explained the same thing in a publication on X, reviewing the 2018 thread that detailed how the blockade of the narrow is easier to do so.
“In order for the Strait to close, it means occupation and assuming the waters of Oman where most of the ships pass. This will immediately invoke the CCG Defense Pact: it means the war between all,” said the thread, and added that a potential closure would damage Iran’s friends more than their enemies, that Iran oil do not matter and could the draw of the narrowed through two surrounding pipelines.
BTC has key support
All this means that the very feared oil pricing peak may not materialize soon, which could help BTC and other risk assets to avoid massive sale. A great increase in oil would increase the risk that important economies fall into stagflation, the worst result for most assets, including bitcoin.
The BTC list shows that Bears could not establish a support point under horizontal support at $ 100,430 on Sunday. Buyers intervened around that level on June 5, carrying the highest prices to $ 110,000 in later days.
The silenced oil reaction suggests the potential for history to be repeated. On the other hand, acceptance under support would change the approach to the confluence of simple mobile averages of 100 and 200 days in around $ 95,900.
