Multiple analysts have repeatedly indicated $ 120,000 as Bitcoin’s
target price this year. Recent developments have strengthened that upward case, promoted by four key factors: the spot price, the policy of the Central Bank, the energy market trend and the technical configuration.
Let’s take a look at those in detail.
BTC’s love story with $ 100K
Recently, an encryption merchant said that the best marketing for any asset is its price, highlighting an idea similar to the reflexivity theory of the legendary merchant George Soros. Soros explained that market perceptions and prices create a feedback cycle: the highest prices attract more buyers, which in turn drives the highest prices, often far beyond what the foundations suggest.
In this context, Bitcoin’s resilience, marked by prices that are largely maintained above $ 100,000 through the Iran-Israel conflict and US air attack in Iran, is its greatest attraction.
The firmness indicates the underlying force, which could reassure the headlines while attracting new buyers, potentially feeding the next higher leg in prices. In addition, brief fall below $ 100,000 seen in the last 48 hours saw investors intervene with offers, revealing the “mentality of purchase of immersion.”
“We are seeing exchange exits, so it is likely that people, regardless of being retailers or institutions, are buying the dip. In general, when it comes to war and other external factors that interrupt things worldwide, they tend to have heavy casualties in the short term, which later bounces in gravity and how the situation communicates. Email on Monday.
Meanwhile, the data tracked by Glassnode show that weak hands began to be sold on June 10, while conviction buyers resorted to the hunting of bargains.
“Since June 10, BTC investors classified as loss sellers increased by 29% (from $ 74K to $ 95.6k), showing growing pressure in weak hands. But buyers of convictions also increased, which suggests that the feeling is not collapsed. Some are reducing losses, others are actively reducing their cost,” Glassnod said in X.
Trump seems to have found his pigeons
The flexibility of liquidity, represented by the fed fees cuts and other measures, is generally a good omen for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Some Fed officials are heating the idea of a possible rate reduction in July, which contradicts the data dependent position of President Jerome Powell.
“Trump seems to have found his pigeons,” he said Monday, the Forexlive Manager Analyst Analyst, wrote Monday after the governor of the Federal Reserve Michelle Bowman, a hawk, said the Central Bank should reduce rates in July.
Halcons are those who prefer a stricter monetary policy and higher rates to temper inflation. Doves are policy formulators who prefer lower rates to support growth.
Bowman said that the impact of tariffs on inflation can take more time and could be less than what was initially expected, and added that she would support reduce the interest rate next month, assuming that inflation pressures remain contained.
Fed Christopher Waller’s governor expressed a similar opinion on Friday, favoring a rate cut in July.
“Now, perhaps it is only a coincidence that two former hawks who are also republicans are suddenly pigeons, but it is beginning to seem a taking of the Fed. And if there is one thing. [President Donald] Trump has been consistent throughout his career (and could be just one something unique), is that they like low interest rates, “Button wrote.
The testimony of President Powell’s semiannual monetary policy before the United States Congress must be presented on Tuesday. Powell is likely to reiterate the independence of the Fed and the data dependent posture, while potentially is roasted by Republicans to maintain high rates.
Oil sliding
Never before has the crowd been so wrong in crude oil. On Sunday, the consensus was that the US military attacks on the possible closure of Iran and Tehran of the Hortuz Strait would send oil prices.
But on Monday, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic crashed. The slide is good news for the central banks that fear the second order effects of the increase in the price of oil seen at the end of last week, and those who expect tariffs.
The second order effects generally include greater transport costs, higher prices of goods that depend on products derived from oil and potential wages, everything that leads to a general increase in inflation.
“Both for fear of the second order effects of oil proclaiming the central bankers. Crude oil fell 6.5% in the day and 15.41% year -on -year … that deflation,” said James E. Thorne, Welington Atlus Head of Market Head of Market, in X.
Alcist technical configuration
The impulse indicators, key mobile averages, are aligned once again.
The single mobile (SMA) mobile (SMA) has just crossed over the 200 -day SMA, weeks after the 50 and 200 -day SMA produced a golden golden crossover.
The result is that the three broadly tracked averages are stacked on top of each other in a classic bullish impulse formation with ascending slope. A similar configuration arose in November last year and remained intact throughout the rally from $ 70,000 to $ 100,000.
