PUBLISHED November 30, 2025
ISLAMABAD:
Three isolated but deeply connected developments this week have cleared the fog on the domestic economic front that the country was on the path to sustainable development when top policymakers admitted that the growth plan was lacking or not enough to sustain the burden with unemployment reaching its highest level in two decades.
The sad outcome of these three events, which occurred within the radius of the red zone, was already known by many. In the midst of these developments, an article beautifully described the fact that more than 615,000 Pakistanis flew abroad in just 10 months in search of employment, while hundreds more were taken off the planes.
This year’s Pakistan Business Council’s annual economic dialogue served as a great platform to know what policy makers in the civil and military sectors were thinking. Two equally candid and direct speeches within a span of 24 hours from the same platform broke the castle built on the flimsy mantra that Pakistan was on the path of irreversible economic development and that the International Monetary Fund’s 25th bailout program would be the last.
Central bank governor Jameel Ahmad, in his usual calm style, conveyed the message that Pakistan’s current growth model simply cannot sustain a country of more than 250 million people.
Analysts had long said that the current economic approach was based on optimistic numbers, ignoring deep-rooted and much-needed structural reforms at the expense of souls. The numbers-based approach aimed to show an improvement in fiscal position by overburdening existing taxpayers and creating foreign exchange reserves through market purchases instead of increasing exports. This consolidation came at a high cost for people and companies.
But the governor was candid enough to say that “continuing stabilization policies indefinitely is neither desirable nor sustainable.”
Pakistan’s economic growth has followed a steady downward trend, going from an average of 3.9% over the past 30 years to 3.5% over the past 20 years and then to 3.4% over the past five years. Of course, the nation needs an economic growth rate greater than 6% just to maintain the pace of adaptation to new entrants to the labor market.
The final blow was given by the general. In his address to Pakistan’s top businessmen, the National Coordinator of the Special Investment Facilitation Council said the country’s “growth plan was missing.” He urged all stakeholders to agree on an export-led economic growth model that can end dependence on protection and subsidies.
General Sarfraz’s statement about the lack of a growth plan also raises many questions about the effectiveness of the multiple economic plans that the government was pursuing. These include the IMF’s three-year Expanded Fund, Stefen Dercon’s economic plan, Ahsan Iqbal’s Uraan Pakistan, the World Bank’s ten-year plan, as well as Mackenzie’s interventions.
General Sarfraz’s view that the debt-prone, consumption-driven growth model was the wrong approach remains as this has kept the economy uncompetitive and also conventional.
Result of stabilization policies
Pakistanis have been suffering and suffering a lot is now officially supported. This week’s Labor Force Survey, which was released after a gap of four years and also under pressure from the IMF, tells the tough story of ordinary Pakistan.
The survey says that the unemployment rate in Pakistan rose to the highest level in 21 years – 7.1% in the last fiscal year. The findings showed that the unemployment rate which was 6.3% in the year 2021 increased to 7.1% during the fiscal year 2024-25.
The official record showed that 7.1% was the highest unemployment rate since 2003-04, when the ratio was recorded at 7.7%. Since then, the unemployment rate has remained in the range of 5.3% to 6.9%. In fiscal year 2018-19 the unemployment rate was 6.9%.
Interestingly, of the total of almost 180 million people of working age, about 118 million or two out of every three people were unpaid employees who provided household services such as cleaning, fetching water, taking care of children and raising chickens.
Almost a quarter of unpaid workers were engaged in domestic work, 18.7% in livestock farming, 23% in child care, 7% fetching water for the home, and another 7.1% raising chickens at home.
Even if these are also included in the unemployed category, the results are terrible.
Of the total 5.9 million unemployed, 4.6 million or 77.5% were literate, which should be another major concern for policy makers. Literate people are leaving the country in search of jobs and blacksmiths cannot build a nation of 250 million people.
The survey indicates that almost a million people with educational degrees were unemployed. According to details, the highest number of unemployed was recorded in the age group of 15 to 29 years, followed by the group of 15 to 24 years.
The provincial division of unemployment also tells another interesting story. The highest unemployment rate of 9.6% was recorded in KP, followed by 7.3% in Punjab, 5.5% in Balochistan and 5.3% in Sindh, the lowest among all federated units.
Pakistan’s average economic growth rate remained below 3% for a longer period of time and the economy was not creating enough jobs to absorb new entrants into the market. The survey showed that 3.5 million people entered the labor market each year.
Civilians do not admit their mistakes and once again blame the IMF.
According to Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, the IMF’s stagnation program has brought misery in addition to the impact of climate change. However, it was his party’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, who signed the agreement with the IMF.
The labor force participation rate, expressed as labor force, employed plus unemployed as a percentage of the population over 10 years of age, increased from 44.9% to 46.3%. The survey results indicated that the workforce increased from 71.8 million in 2020-21 to 83.1 million in 2024-25.
Salaried employees constitute the largest group with 43.5%, followed by self-employed workers, 36.1%, contributing family workers, 19.1%, and employers, 1.3%. If contributing workers are also excluded from the list of employed persons, the results are more worrying.
Almost half of the female workers work as contributing family workers and almost half of the men work as employees.
Unpaid domestic and care work
The report revealed that a significant proportion of respondents are engaged in domestic and care work, with 45.4 million women involved in household chores, 32.1 million in livestock operations and 20 million in caring responsibilities, highlighting their vital roles in these areas.
In the absence of a growth framework and growth rate that can create jobs for all, Pakistanis live in the country.
Pakistan’s labor export to international markets reached 615,055 by the end of October 2025, reflecting an average of 61,505 workers leaving the country every month, according to official data released by the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment (BEOE). In comparison, 727,381 Pakistani workers moved abroad in 2024, making for an average monthly departure of 60,615.
An Express PAkGazette report says the record outflow masks the deepening challenges faced by workers seeking opportunities abroad. Despite growing demand in Gulf markets, thousands of Pakistanis continue to struggle with complex visa requirements, stricter documentation rules, frequent rejections and increased unloading at airports, obstacles that often turn already desperate economic migration into an ordeal.
It further states that Pakistan’s worsening economic conditions are driving record numbers of people abroad, but those seeking livelihoods face increasing obstacles at every step of the migration journey. Visa and documentation processes remain daunting, with applicants struggling with confusing requirements, inconsistent scrutiny and frequent rejections.
Airport dumping has also intensified, disproportionately affecting people under the age of 30 and causing devastating financial losses as money borrowed for tickets, visas and agent fees, often running into hundreds of thousands of rupees, cannot be recovered. Skills mismatches worsen the challenge, as weak CVs, generic applications, lack of certifications, low English proficiency and limited technical training hamper competitiveness in European and Gulf markets.
Divided economic house
At a time when the government needs to respond to the economic and human crisis, its house is divided. Internal reports suggest that there is a strong element of dissatisfaction about the performance of the economic team. The blame game has begun; A scapegoat is sought for a sacrifice.
Due to a divided chamber, the government has been unable to effectively erect a defensive wall against growing criticism of the results of the Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment report. So far, the Finance Ministry is quiet and the Prime Minister’s Office would probably now ask Finance Minister Bilal Azhar Kayani to present a defense in Parliament.
