Good morning, Asia. This is what is making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Will former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried be pardoned?
Bettors on Polymarket say it’s a long shot, but the odds have increased by 5 percentage points to 12% after Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao on Thursday US time. Kalshi saw a bigger jump, with a contract seeking a SBF pardon rising 9 percentage points to 16%.
Earlier this year, SBF launched a media charm offensive with an appearance on Tucker Carlson’s podcast as part of a broader effort to reshape its public image and lay the groundwork for a potential presidential pardon.
The former FTX CEO has leaned toward conservative media and claims he was punished for backing Republicans, while his parents are quietly courting allies in President Donald Trump’s circle in hopes of winning clemency for their son’s 25-year prison sentence.
Although the odds of SBF getting a pardon are currently low, Polymarket traders were caught off guard by Trump’s decision to pardon CZ.
For most of the life of the contract, the odds of a pardon ranged between 20% and 40%, indicating widespread skepticism about the possibility of any leniency occurring.
No matter how accurate the research is in prediction markets, things are sometimes missed by underestimating the probabilities of outcomes. Maybe they’re doing the same thing with SBF, because a surprise pardon would be the kind of final twist. The altruists – the upcoming Netflix series about the collapse of FTX – the writers would cut it for being too far-fetched, right until it happens.
Market movement:
BTC: Bitcoin rose 2.7% to around $110,700 on Thursday, recovering from Wednesday’s drop as markets recovered ahead of Friday’s September inflation report.
ETH: Ether is trading near $3,850 as analysts point to a possible Wyckoff reaccumulation phase, with rising institutional demand fueling speculation of a breakout to $8,000 to $10,000 later in this cycle.
Gold: Gold is trading around $4,126, up nearly 50% this year after hitting a record above $4,000, as geopolitical tensions, Fed policy uncertainty and heavy central bank buying drive demand, although Morgan Stanley warns high prices could slow jewelry and reserve purchases even as it raises its 2026 forecast to $4,400. dollars.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 0.78%, after the White House confirmed talks between Trump and Xi next week.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Fireblocks buys crypto authentication startup Dynamic, completing its ‘custody to consumer’ offering (The Block)
- Alt5 Sigma Suspends CEO Peter Tassiopoulos and Appoints Jonathan Hugh as Interim Leader (CoinDesk)
- Trezor Unveils Safe 7 ‘Quantum-Ready’ (Decrypt) Hardware Wallet
