Dhaka: The protests in Bangladesh that knocked down the government last year triggered a diplomatic pivot, with Dhaka heating towards China after the Indian neighbor got angry at the expelled of her former ally sheikh sheikh Hasina.
A year from the protests, that realignment runs the risk of intensifying polarization, and the fears of external interference, as political parties in Bangladesh become influence before next year’s elections.
For the caregiver’s government, which seeks an internal consensus to review democratic institutions in the country of 170 million people, it is another challenge to juggle.
“India-Bangladesh relations had probably never experienced such an intense tension before,” said New Delhi analyst Praveen Donthi, of The International Crisis Group.
There is a deep resentment in Dhaka for the fate of the former Prime Minister, who escaped a lifting led by students by helicopter in August 2024 and flew to New Delhi when thousands of protesters broke into his palace.
The interim leader Muhammad Yunus said that the popular anger in the Muslim majority of Bangladesh had been “transferred to India” because the Hindu nationalist government of New Delhi offered Hasina to the sanctuary.
Hasina, 77, has challenged the extradition orders of attending his crimes against the judgment of humanity, and has already been convicted in absence for contempt of the Court with a six -month sentence.
‘Readjustment’
The MD Touhid Hossain, which runs the Bangladesh Foreign Ministry, said that “the relationship is now in the readjustment stage.”
The first state visit of the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize Yunus went to China in March, a trip that saw him ensure $ 2.1 billion in investments, loans and subsidies.
Beijing has also courted the main politicians directly.
Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, a senior leader of the Nationalist Party of Bangladesh (BNP), the expected choice of the front, said that China is “interested” to work with the next elected government with “sincerity, firmness, love and affection.”
India has captivated for a long time with the growing regional influence of China and the two most populated countries in the world compete for the influence in southern Asia, despite a recent diplomatic thaw.
Bangladesh has also approached Pakistan, the Archionemigo of India.
In May, more than 70 people were killed in four days of missile, drone and artillery fire among the forces of New Delhi and Islamabad, caused by a mortal attack against civilians in India illegally occupied Kashmir.
The following month, Dhaka and Islamabad officials met with homologists in China.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said the trio had agreed “cooperation programs”, including trade, industry, education and agriculture.
Obaidul Haque, who teaches international relations at the University of Dhaka, said that conversations with Beijing had “not brought fruit”, including alternative medical care after a medical tourism once popular to India was restricted.
“For example, China appointed three hospitals for patients with Bangladesh when India made access difficult,” he said.
‘Be careful’
Bangladesh and Pakistan, who separated in 1971 after the War of Independence of Dhaka, began trade by sea last year, with also scheduled direct flights.
That caused concern in New Delhi.
“Current Indian political leadership, due to its ideological foundations … are not willing to accept Dhaka under a government that they perceive as Islamist and hostile towards India,” Donthi said.
“The visible commitment between Dhaka, Islamabad and Beijing further improves this perception.”
Both New Delhi and Bangladesh have imposed commercial restrictions on each other.
India, which surrounds a large part of Bangladesh by land, has imposed multiple commercial restrictions, including hardening rules on Indian imports of jute fibers, prepared garments, plastic and food products.
But trade between neighboring nations remains high, said MD Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladesh ambassador to Washington, who has also served in India.
But he urged caution, saying that Dhaka should “carefully step on alliances” and try to strengthen “multilateral relations” as a balance.
“Cooperation still exists among countries, but heat has gone,” he said.
‘Socavar attempts’
Separately, Bangladesh, the second largest exporter of clothing in the world, has also been caught in the world shaking caused by the rates of the president of the United States, Donald Trump.
Dhaka proposes to buy Boeing airplanes and increase the imports of American wheat, cotton and oil in an attempt to reduce the commercial deficit, with Yunus in June telling the Secretary of State of the US Marco Rubio of its “commitment to strengthen” ties.
But in terms of regional tensions, analysts say that little will change soon, and warn that they have the potential to intensify.
“Things could change only if New Delhi is satisfied with the electoral process and sees someone who meets power in Dhaka,” Donthi added of the crisis group.
“It is very unlikely that your position will change to the current government in Dhaka,” he said.
“There may be attempts to undermine it instead of collaborating.”
