Bitcoin’s “realized capitalization” is at an all-time high of $1.125 trillion, suggesting BTC remains in a bull market despite the nearly 40% price drop over the past 10 weeks.
This on-chain metric, which values each bitcoin at the price it last moved, highlights actual capital inflows rather than speculative price action as the total market capitalization.
Data from Glassnode shows that the realized limit continued to rise through the 36% correction from October’s all-time price high, even as it has lately stalled in the $1.125 trillion area. A similar pause was seen during the April 2025 tariff tantrum, when bitcoin bottomed near $76,000 before reaching new highs.
During the 2022 bear market, the realized limit fell from around $470 billion to $385 billion as investors capitulated and coins were sold at a lower cost; This type of response is not being seen at this time.
The narrative of the four-year cycle is questioned
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin could challenge the four-year cycle narrative, with bullish surprises in 2026. Dragosch pointed to resilient global growth combined with ongoing rate cuts to deepen the yield curve and expand liquidity, all conditions that could weaken the US dollar, which is an environment that has historically supported bitcoin.
“In my view, bitcoin is materially undervaluing the prevailing macroeconomic context, to a degree last seen during the Covid recession and the FTX collapse, even though there are no signs of a US recession and there is evidence of a growth reacceleration,” Dragosch said.
