By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran remains the biggest news of the day as attacks intensify and spread.
Markets reacted as they usually do: de-risking and pushing up oil prices. bitcoin fell to $66,300, down 0.5% in 24 hours, after reaching a high of $68,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 index fell more than 2%, indicating broader losses in the cryptocurrency market and futures linked to the S&P 500 index lost 1%.
Beyond the headlines and panic, the war could only strengthen the “debasement trade,” a strategy in which investors turn to low-supply assets like gold and bitcoin in anticipation of a drop in the value of fiat (paper) currencies.
Governments in the United States and elsewhere already owe more than they generate in economic growth. Their finances will only get worse the longer the war drags on. In such situations, governments do not collect enough taxes. Instead, they force central banks to “print money” through bond purchases or quantitative easing (QE) to monetize debt. This floods the fiat supply and dilutes purchasing power. Hello degradation.
Traders lead that process by loading up store-of-value assets like gold and BTC. The yellow metal has been on the rise for more than a year, mainly due to degradation flows. BTC did not participate back then. But now, having nearly halved to below $67,000 since October, it appears oversold. The possibility that the downgrade trade catalyzes a bounce in the largest cryptocurrency cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, the Fed historically turns dovish with liquidity easing during geopolitical tensions, supporting asset prices, as Maelstrom Fund CIO Arthur Hayes noted in his blog post.
Let’s see how things develop. In the meantime, traders should keep an eye on headline risks and oil rallies. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- March 2: SuperRare will release Delirium, a new collection by artist Xer0x
- March 2: Mantra’s OM will change to MANTRA with a 1:4 coin split as MANTRA Chain upgrades from v6 to v7.
- Macro
- March 2, 10:00 am: US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February estimated at 52.3 (previous 52.6)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 2: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, -$0.32
- March 2: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.18
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- PoolTogether DAO is voting to resubmit and manually execute the remaining actions for the PTBR-35 governance shutdown after a previous execution error. Voting ends March 2.
- Angle DAO is voting to orderly close EURA and USDA stablecoins, providing users with a one-year 1:1 redemption period followed by a final settlement airdrop. Voting ends March 2.
- GMX DAO is voting to transition to a defined leadership model by hiring a CEO with performance-linked compensation and forming an interim leadership committee to guide the restructuring. Voting ends March 2.
- Unlock
- Token releases
- March 2: Dovu (DOVU) will list on Kraken.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.98% as of 4 pm ET Friday to $66,194.78 (24 hours: -0.35%)
- ETH is up 1.48% to $1,950.67 (24 hours: -1.63%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 0.78% to 1,916.46 (24 hours: -1.11%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 1bp to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0011% (-1.2147% annualized) on Binance
- DXY rises 0.64% to 98.23
- Gold futures rise 3.03% to $5,406.80
- Silver futures rise 2.64% to $95.75
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 58,057.24
- Hang Seng closed down 2.14% at 26,059.85
- The FTSE is down 0.78% at 10,825.36
- The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 1.89% to 6,022.64
- DJIA closed Friday down 1.05% at 48,977.92
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,878.88
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% at 22,668.21
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.47% at 34,339.99
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 0.82% to 3,741.78
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 0.4 basis points to 3.966%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 1.04% to 6,817.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures down 1.42% to 24,650.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index futures down 1.11% to 48,458.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.63% (0.22%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02944 (-0.18%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.01
- Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $169,782
- CME Futures Open Interest: 109,280 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 12.2 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.42%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily ether price swings with Bollinger bands, which are bands of volatility located two standard deviations above and below the price’s 20-day simple moving average.
- The gap between the bands has narrowed to $226, the narrowest since June 2025.
- Volatility typically increases when the bands narrow, meaning the token could soon see big price moves in either direction.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $175.85 (-2.88%), -2.42% to $171.60 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.44 (-4.32%), -3.46% at $80.55
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.59 (-6.15%), -2.19% at $20.14
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.39 (-4.09%), -3.73% at $30.22
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.94 (+5.80%), -1.23% to $8.83
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.29 (-4.68%), -2.70% at $15.85
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (-5.62%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (-4.69%), -2.01% at $9.75
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.88 (-5.43%), -3.61% at $38.44
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.20 (-2.39%), -2.25% at $9.97
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.50 (-2.92%), -0.39% at $129.00
- Strive (ASST): closed at $7.94 (-3.05%), -2.39% at $7.75
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.82 (-5.41%), +0.44% to $6.85
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.66 (-12.88%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (-0.88%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$27.5 million
- Accumulated net flows: $54.78 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$43 million
- Accumulated net flows: $11.63 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.7 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
- Trump says war with Iran could last ‘four weeks or less’ as attacks intensify (Euronews): Trump says the war with Iran could last four weeks or less as US and Israeli forces continue their attacks on Iran, which is responding with attacks on Gulf States, Israel and US targets.
- New Iranian attacks reported across region, including Saudi Arabia, as US planes crash in Kuwait (BBC): New Iranian attacks were reported across the Middle East, with explosions in Bahrain, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.
- US Stock Futures Fall in Premarket Trading as Oil and Gold Retreat from Highs (CoinDesk) – US stocks fell in premarket trading. The Invesco QQQ ETF fell 1.5%. A Saudi Arabian oil refinery was attacked by Iran, sending the price of WTI crude oil to $75 per barrel. Gold rose more than 2% to $5,400 an ounce.
- Hedge Funds, Insurers Rush to Assess Their Exposure as Iran Soars (Bloomberg): Hedge funds, banks and insurers rushed to assess their exposure to the Middle East after weekend attacks on Iran fueled chaos across the region.
