This is a daily analysis of the Coendesk analyst and rented market technician Omkar Godbole.
The main cryptocurrencies are optimistic, with the Bitcoin market leader exhibiting a classic in reverse head and shoulders that could drive it towards $ 120,000.
But there is a trap. The daily table for future S&P 500 e-mini is showing a bearish pattern, indicating a possible sales sale that could weigh in the cryptocurrency market and trap bulls on the wrong side of the market.
S&P 500 Hits Record with an ascending wedge
Futures E-Mini have increased almost 5% to a record of $ 6,542 since August 1. The slow ascent has taken the form of an upward wedge pattern identified by convergent trend lines that connect on July 31 and August 15.
Convergent tendency lines indicate that the bullish impulse is decreasing, which increases the probability of a massive sale.
When asked to identify and analyze the pattern in the future S&P 500, Google Gemini replied: “When an ascending wedge, which is a pattern of bearish reversion, appears after an extended rally to register maximums, significantly increases the probability of an acute downward movement. It suggests that buyers are exhausted and that the rally is in operation.
It is known that cryptocurrencies closely track the feeling of Wall Street, which means that a possible decrease in S&P 500 could weigh on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Inflation with eyes
The probabilities of a breakdown in the S&P 500 could increase abruptly if the US consumer price index. UU. (CPI) Hottest impressions than expected. Such a result, combined with the recent weakness of the labor market, can rekindle the fears of stagflation, the worst case for risk assets, which drives additional pressure on actions and cryptocurrencies equally.
The medium forecast for the US consumer price index. (CPI) In August 2025 it is an increase of 2.9% year after year (not seasonally adjusted)According to Factset. If this estimate is true, it will be the highest annual increase since January 2025, when the CPI reached 3.0% and well above the 2% of the Fed. In addition, this 2.9% figure would exceed the average inflation rate of twelve months of twelve months of 2.6%.
More importantly, medium estimation (year after year, not seasonally adjusted) For the central ICC, which excludes food and energy, is 3.1%.
BTC, ETH options are already biased
The Risk Reversions of 25 Delta de Delta linked to the Bitcoin and Deribit Libit options were negative at the December expiration, according to the Amberdata data source. In other words, BTC and ETH shorts and almost dated are negotiated with a premium to the calls, which reflects a bias bias.
A sales option protects the buyer from a decrease in the value of the underlying asset. A call provides an asymmetric bullish exposure. The risk reversal of 25 Delta implies the simultaneous purchase of a sales option and the sale of a call, or vice versa.
According to the founder of Insights options, Imran Lakha, the PUT bias in BTC is probably due to institutions that place long -term hedges. The flows have continued to tend in the lowest trend in the paradigm of the free sales technological platform.
“Flows again presented the [ETH] SEP 4K PUT, raised up to 73v, “Paradigm said.
XRP is undecided, Dege looks north
While BTC’s reverse head and shoulder rupture suggests a strong bullish address, XRP’s price action seems undecided.
The cryptocurrency centered on payments remains blocked in a descending triangle and continues to merchant inside the Ichimoku cloud. Together, these indicators suggest a period of consolidation and uncertainty.
A rupture of the triangle could invite a stronger purchase pressure, which potentially leads to a $ 3.38 test, high swing from August 8. That said, the descending triangle, by itself, is generally considered a bearish pattern. This is due to the fact that the line of descending slope that connects the lower maximums indicates that the vendors are progressively stronger and the horizontal support level could soon penetrate.
Speaking of Doge, he has resumed the June bullish trend line, catching sellers on the wrong side of the market. In addition, prices have crossed in Alcista territory above the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests the scope of a July maximum proof of 28.76 cents.
However, merchants still need to take into account a possible wedge breakdown in the future in future S&P 500, since an investment there could limit the profits in Dux and weigh their price impulse.
