In financial markets, making assumptions based on short -term observations is a silly mandate, as significant trends develop for months and years, not days or weeks. But as investors evaluate Bitcoin’s role in their portfolios, it is worth analyzing April events to understand the emerging reputation of the asset as a value reserve.
Volatility backdrop
The turbulence caused by the tariffs of President Trump on April 2 sent the prices of the shares take the next day, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 falling 4.8% and 5.4%, respectively. Bitcoin did the same when the success levels of the VIX volatility index are not seen since the first days of COVID and the fears of commercial measures of retaliation prevailed.
However, the price of Bitcoin began to recover sharply within a few days of the announcement, causing its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 to fall below 0.50, before these correlations increased again when the pause of April 9 in the tariffs brought back the “risk” mode.
Bitcoin correlations with traditional markets in April
Source: Hashdex Research with CF Data Benchmarks and Bloomberg (April 1, 2025 to April 30, 2025). Continuous correlations of 30 days (considering only work days) between Bitcoin (represented by the Bitcoin Nasdaq reference price index) and Tradfi indices.
This short -term observation is important because it supports the changing nature of how investors perceive bitcoin. While some still classify Bitcoin as a “risky risk” asset of high beta, institutional feeling is beginning to reflect a more nuanced understanding. Bitcoin recovered faster than the S&P 500 in the 60 days that followed the Covid outbreak, the invasion of Ukraine of Russia and the US banking crisis in 2023, events in which he demonstrated resilience and an increasingly aligned profile with that of gold during stress.
These decoupling periods establish a pattern in which Bitcoin shows their anti -fágile properties, which allows assignments to protect capital during systemic events, while exceeding the performance of shares, bonds and long -term gold.
Bitcoin vs. Traditional assets, 5 -year returns
Source: Casebitcoin, return data from May 1, 2020 to April 30, 2025 (Casebitcoin.com)
The road to digital gold
Perhaps more convincing than Bitcoin’s long -term yields are the long -term portfolio effects. Even a small assignment to Bitcoin within a traditional stock portfolio of 60%/40% bonds would have improved risk -adjusted yields in 98% of three -year periods in the last decade. And these returns adjusted by the risk are remarkably higher in the longest time frames, which suggests that Bitcoin’s volatility from positive yields rather than counteracts short -term reduction.
It could still be premature to affirm that Bitcoin has been universally accepted as “digital gold”, but that narrative, backed by its response to geopolitical events, is gaining impulse. The combination of the fixed supply, liquidity, accessibility and immunity to the interference of the Central Bank gives it properties that no traditional asset can replicate. This should be attractive to any investor, large or small, in search of portfolio diversification and preservation of long -term wealth.
