Bitcoin is on track for a fourth consecutive monthly decline, a rare stretch not seen since 2018 to 2019, when the market logged six consecutive months in the red. There is still one full trading week left in January, but bitcoin is down slightly for the month, hovering around $87,000.
The asset recorded negative monthly closes in October, November and December, representing a sharp correction from its all-time high in October. From its peak to its lowest point, bitcoin has declined by approximately 36% during that period.
Notably, even the 2022 bear market, when bitcoin plummeted from $69,000 to $15,000 amid quantitative tightening and crypto-specific industry failures, did not produce more than three consecutive negative months. That historical comparison highlights how unusual the current streak would be if January also closes lower.
Short-term optimism
Despite weakness in spot prices, derivatives markets suggest some tentative optimism. According to Deribit data, options positioning points to modest bullish interest at the end of the month.
Bitcoin faces an options expiration on January 30, with total open interest expiring at approximately $8.5 billion on Deribit. The $100,000 call option has the highest notional value, close to $900 million, indicating that a significant group of traders are positioned for a rally to the six-figure level. The maximum pain price for this expiration is near $90,000. Peak pain refers to the price level at which the largest number of options contracts expire worthless, which can create a gravitational pull toward that level as expiration approaches.
