Bitcoin traded at $70,981 on Thursday, down 0.5% over 24 hours but still up 6.1% on the week as the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran that sparked Tuesday’s broad rally began to show cracks less than 48 hours after its announcement.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said three clauses of the ceasefire proposal had been violated, without specifying which ones. Israeli attacks continued in Lebanon.
And the Strait of Hormuz, the critical sea route whose reopening was supposed to be the centerpiece of the deal, remains effectively closed with minimal tanker traffic despite Iran’s promise to allow “coordinated” transit.
Brent crude oil recovered 2% to around $97 after Wednesday’s more than 10% collapse, its worst single-day drop in six years. The reversal reflects how quickly the market has gone from pricing in peace to pricing with uncertainty about whether the ceasefire will hold through the weekend, let alone for the full two weeks.
Ether fell 2.6% to $2,180 after leading the ceasefire rally with a 5.2% weekly gain. Solana SOL fell 3.1% to $81.96, XRP lost 3% to $1.33, and dogecoin fell 3.4% to $0.091. BNB remained relatively stable at $600, down 2.2%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%, with two shares falling for every one rising, after rising the most in a year following Wednesday’s ceasefire euphoria. The S&P 500 and European futures pointed to a 0.2% decline, indicating that the four-day winning streak for global stocks was about to end. Treasuries were steady after reversing an earlier rally on concerns that higher oil prices would impact inflation.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to highlight the risks of rising inflation along with weakening working conditions, keeping the higher rates narrative intact for longer. Wage growth in Japan has reached multi-decade highs, strengthening expectations of further rate hikes.
That combination amounts to what one analyst described as “an uncoordinated adjustment” in major economies, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty that prevents any stable anchor for rate expectations.
For bitcoin specifically, the move from $67,000 to $72,700 on the ceasefire and subsequent holding above $70,000 despite Thursday’s swing is the most constructive price action since the war began six weeks ago.
The $65,000 to $73,000 range that has contained every move since late February is still intact, but bitcoin is now testing the upper half rather than advancing through the bottom.
