Bitcoin The recent drop may seem ominous, but K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde says December could mark a turning point for the cryptocurrency. After its steepest correction since the last bear market, the company sees more evidence of a rally than another crash.
BTC has been hit by a wave of selling, many of it structural. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which had been the market’s biggest buyers, became net sellers in November. CME futures activity has fallen to its lowest level in several years, indicating TradFi’s hesitation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin price has underperformed stocks, hitting its weakest level against the Nasdaq since late 2024.
But K33 sees a market that is overreacting to distant threats while overlooking signs of near-term strength. “The case for a significant rally is much more plausible than a repeat of the 80% decline,” the company wrote in its December outlook.
They point out several factors. First, bitcoin is trading near strong historical support levels ($70,000 to $80,000), while broader futures positioning remains cautious, not overheated. Perpetual markets show low leverage and no major liquidations have materialized despite price pressure.
Long-term fears, such as the risks of quantum computing, possible bitcoin strategy sales (MSTR), or instability in Tether, may seem dramatic, but they are unlikely to occur anytime soon. K33 notes that each of these threats is years away from posing a real risk and should not drive current price movements.
Instead, the company argues, the focus should be on what the near-term future holds. With supportive policy changes on the horizon, including possible 401(k) access to cryptocurrencies and a pro-crypto shift at the Federal Reserve, K33 sees a bullish structural build. Bitcoin’s current valuation, they say, reflects more fear than fundamentals.
For now, the market remains cautious. But K33’s outlook suggests December may offer a window for bold positioning.
