The bad news has been bad news in the last 24 hours. The weak report of US works on Friday reinforced bets in deeper food cuts, but Bitcoin He has not played.
The leading market for market value remains heavy below $ 112,000, instead of meeting with the possibility of a easier monetary policy as many had anticipated. The inability to find the advantage suggests potential for a deeper sale ahead.
NFP shock
Employment applicants had a difficult time in August since non -agricultural payrolls revealed only 22,000 work additions, significantly less than the 75,000 Dow Jones projection. The report also reviewed more under the creation of combined employment during June and July in 21,000. In particular, the June revised figure showed a net loss of 13,000.
Nine sectors, including manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade and professional services, loss of registered employment, while health services and leisure and hospitality were bright points.
Kobeissi’s letter called the “absolutely crazy” works report. The bulletin service described the downward reviews in the previous months as a sign of a broken system and the labor market that enters the territory of the recession.
After job data, the probability of a Fed rate reduction at the September 17 meeting increased to 100%, and the probabilities of a 50 -base cutting cut increased to 12%. The probability of additional rates cuts in November and December also increased, which caused lower treasure yields.
The next reviews to the reports of previous jobs are expected to add fuel to tariff reduction bets. “The BLS will announce the annual reference reviews on Tuesday, and it is expected to point to even weaker employment growth before. Some surveys suggest that between 500k and 1 mln jobs could be checked,” said Bannockburn Global Forex market strategist, Marc Chandler said, in a market update.
BTC double top is intact; Volatility in treasure yields can increase
Bitcoin recovered briefly with the hope of a fed rate cut and softer yields, reaching a maximum of more than $ 113,300. But the rebound faded quickly, with prices that fell again for less than $ 111,982, the double limit neckline.
Do not take that level again underlined the double Top breakdown of the end of August and validates the bearish configuration, maintaining the downward risks. The prices that are below the cloud of Ichimoku further validates the bearish perspective, such as Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, he said in an update of the market.
The first support line is around $ 101,700, which corresponds to the simple 200 -day mobile average (SMA). The last double breakdown in Bitcoin closely reflects on February of this year, which led to an important sale of multiple weeks that promoted prices to around $ 75,000.
The double Top is a formation of the bearish investment table that occurs after an asset has experienced an upward trend. It is formed when the price reaches a high point (The first peak)Then it is withdrawn at a support level called neckline. The price increases again, but does not exceed the first peak, creating a second peak at approximately the same level. The pattern is confirmed when the price is broken below the neckline, indicating that the previous bullish trend has lost impulse and can follow a bearish trend.
Treasury yields can become
The bearish technical perspective, presented by the last Double Top breakdown, is reinforced by the possibility of a van in the volatility in treasure yields, which often leads to financial tightening.
Volatility could increase in the next few days, since the imminent cuts of the Fed rate could initially send the lowest 10 years performance in a positive development for BTC and risk assets. That said, the disadvantage seems limited and could be quickly reversed, very similar to what happened at the end of 2024.
Last year, from September to December, the 10 -year performance actually increased, even when the Fed began to reduce rates, reversing the previous decrease that occurred in the period prior to September. The 10 -year yield touched 3.6% in mid -September 2024 and then increased to 4.80% in mid -January.
While the labor market today seems significantly weaker than last year, inflation is relatively higher, and fiscal spending continues incessantly, which means that the yield could increase after the cut of the September rate.
“Why the 10 -year yield increased from September to December 2024 is open to interpretation, but there was a base of macro resilience, sticky inflation and many conversations about fiscal generosity as a medium -term risk. This time, granted, awarded, the concerns about the economy are more intense. But detaching this is an ongoing fiscal concern and a dynamic of different influence,” those analyzed in the customer.
August IPC data that are due to next week
When the FED reduced the rates last September, the US consumer price index was well below 3%. Since then, it has exceeded 3%. More importantly, it is likely that August IPC data, which are due to next week, provide more evidence of inflation stickiness.
According to Wells Fargo, the central ICC has increased by 0.3%, keeping the rate year after year at 3.1%. Meanwhile, it is forecast that the main CPI has increased 0.3% month by month and 2.9% year after year.
