bitcoin has room to run, and fast, according to a new forecast from JPMorgan analysts who expect the cryptocurrency to hit $170,000 in the next six to 12 months.
In a note published this week, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team said the recent deleveraging of crypto derivatives, particularly bitcoin perpetual futures, is largely lagging the market, setting the stage for new growth.
“The message from the recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures is likely behind us,” the report says, referring to the October and November sell-offs that followed a wave of liquidations and Balancer’s $120 million feat.
The bank’s price projection is based on a comparison with gold. Bitcoin has long positioned itself as “digital gold,” but JPMorgan’s model suggests it is currently trading well below where it should be when adjusted for risk. Their framework assumes that bitcoin consumes 1.8 times more risk capital than gold, and given the $6.2 trillion in private investment in gold across ETFs, bars and coins, bitcoin’s market capitalization would need to grow by two-thirds (from around $2.1 trillion) to match that exposure. That implies a price of $170,000, up from $102,000 today.
It is a sharp change from the end of 2024, when bitcoin was trading well above the estimated value of this model.
Today, it is approximately $68,000 below the gold-based benchmark, the team says.
The call comes at a time of shifting investor behavior across asset classes. Retail investors continue to buy US stocks and gold, but with gold volatility increasing, bitcoin may increasingly become the preferred hedge for equity risk, the note suggests. Recent gold purchases by central banks and retail buyers have increased in dollar terms, but bitcoin now looks more attractive from a risk-adjusted standpoint.
JPMorgan downplayed fears that the tightening of U.S. bank reserves would spread to broader markets. While liquidity among banks is tight, the broader money supply and non-bank liquidity continues to expand, supporting risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Still, the bank’s projection is not based solely on sentiment or momentum. “This is a mechanical exercise,” the team wrote.
