Glassnode’s latest weekly report highlights similarities between current market conditions and the early stages of the 2022 bear market, also known as crypto winter.
The first metric that suggests stress is the high risk of capitulation by major buyers. Glassnode’s Bid Quantile Cost Base, which tracks the bid cost base of major buyers, shows that since mid-November the spot price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile and is trading near $96,100. This puts more than 25% of the BTC supply underwater. A similar drop below the 0.75 quantile marked the start of the 2022 bear market.
At the same time, the total supply loss on a 7-day simple moving average has now reached 7.1 million bitcoins, the upper end of the 5 to 7 million range seen in early 2022.
Despite these pressures, capital continues to flow into bitcoin based on the net capitalization change realized, which stands at around $8.69 billion per month. However, this figure is still well below the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month, according to Glassnode.
Off-chain trends show further weakening by investors. Demand for ETFs continues to weaken, with IBIT recording a sixth consecutive week of outflows, its longest losing streak since its launch in January 2024. Outflows now total more than $2.7 billion in redemptions over the past five weeks.
Spot market activity is also deteriorating. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) has reversed, and Binance CVD is trending persistently negative, Glassnode notes. Meanwhile, it looks like Coinbase’s premium will fall again, after recently turning positive after a long period in the red.
Derivatives data reinforces the decline in risk appetite. Open interest has fallen from November to December, suggesting a lower willingness to take risk, particularly after the sudden liquidation event on October 10. Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral, with brief periods of negative figures, and the funding premium has cooled noticeably, pointing to a more balanced and less speculative environment.
Glassnode also notes that traders are not positioning for a strong breakout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The company sees a cautious stance in the options market, where advantages are sold rather than chased. Earlier in the week, put option buying dominated as bitcoin approached $80,000. When the price subsequently stabilized, flows headed toward call activity as investor fears eased.
