By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Markets are taking risks again after a Reuters report suggested that a ceasefire plan between the United States and Iran could come into effect on Monday, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
bitcoin is up more than 4% in 24 hours to nearly $70,000, lifting sentiment across the market. The CoinDesk 20 Index and XRP (XRP) also added 4%, while ether (ETH) jumped more than 5%, along with a 3% gain in solana (SOL).
The tone is reinforced by bullish signals in the futures market, a continued decline in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index and a 0.8% gain in Nasdaq 100 futures.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, the world’s largest publicly traded bitcoin holder, hinted at another BTC purchase. The company already holds 762,099 BTC, underscoring its dominant reserve position and long-term accumulation strategy. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to increase oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day by May, a symbolic effort to ease tension in the energy market.
Together, these points point to the possibility that cryptocurrencies will continue to rise.
But there is a warning. Recent ceasefire headlines citing unnamed sources have proven unreliable and have often been debunked or outright rejected by Iran. If that pattern repeats itself, markets could quickly reverse course.
Another key question is whether any ceasefire between the United States and Iran would be binding on Israel. Otherwise, the current risk sentiment may prove short-lived.
Notably, the latest ceasefire initiative is described as a last-ditch effort to prevent the “massive attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure,” President Donald Trump threatened over the weekend.
Meanwhile, the oil market continues to inject inflationary pressure into the global economy. Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia raised the price of its Arab Light crude for Asia-bound shipments in May to a record premium over Middle East benchmarks.
Some observers warned that oil prices are approaching a danger zone. The interannual variation rate of oil stands at 92%. Historically, a move towards 100% has coincided with stock market crashes. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- April 6, 12 pm: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) will host a March 2026 roundup and Ask Me Anything (AMA) session at X Spaces.
- Macro
- Apr 6, 09:00 am: US ISM services PMI for March estimated 55 (previous 56.1)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Aave DAO is voting to adjust oracle settings, lower settlement thresholds, and modify interest rate models in its V2 markets to support its continued deprecation. Voting ends April 6.
- Decentraland DAO is voting to require the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to formally publish a definition of success and a contingency plan for 2030. The proposal currently has voter support. Voting ends April 6.
- Unlock
- April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply worth $11.94 million.
- Token releases
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 3.56% since 4 pm ET on Friday to $69,805.19 (24 hours: +4.23%)
- ETH is up 4.34% to $2,154.80 (24 hours: +5.42%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 3.78% to 1,977.26 (24 hours: +4.06%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate remains unchanged at 2.69%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0058% (6.3400% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.11% at 99.91
- Gold futures rise 1.60% to $4,726.10
- Silver futures rise 1.00% to $73.46
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.55% at 53,413.68
- Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53
- The FTSE 100 closed up 0.69% at 10,436.30 on Thursday.
- The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.70% to 5,692.86
- DJIA closed down 0.13% at 46,504.67
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with an increase of 4.26% to 3,623.86
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 1 bp to 4.31%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,644.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 24,370.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures unchanged at 46,779.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.02% (unchanged)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.030877 (1.02%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 954 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.75
- Total fees: 1.61 BTC / $108,359
- CME Futures Open Interest: 106,600 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.9 oz
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.66%
Technical analysis
- The graph shows WTI oil price swings since 1986 in the top panel. The bottom panel shows the 12-month rate of change (ROC).
- Historically, every time the ROC goes up 100%, stock markets crash. And now, the ROC is closing in on that marker again.
- “Every major market decline since 1987 has been preceded by a signal,” Jack Prandelli, a commodities market analyst and author of Substack-based Merchant’s News, said on X.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Friday at $171.46 (–0.88%), +3.80% to $177.97 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +2.44% at $18.07
- MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), +3.10% to $8.98
- Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT): closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), +2.49% to $13.18
- Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ): Closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), +1.79% at $16.52
- CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), +3.30% to $9.08
- Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), +2.06% to $37.12
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +4.20% to $94.05
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +4.04% to $124.67
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +4.52% to $6.47
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +3.59% at $10.10
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), +3.59% to $1.01
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $9 million
- Accumulated net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$71.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: 11,510 million dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~5.68 million
Source: Farside Investors
