By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Friday’s crypto markets are a sea of green, bouncing after yesterday’s brutal beating in a classic oversold bounce. But real risks remain and threaten any lasting recovery.
Bitcoin has climbed back to $65,000 after flirting with $60,000, and the BlackRock ETF action hints at a capitulation, that is, long-term holders unwinding at losses, often the last gasp of the bear market. The broader market has also perked up, with XRP, SOL, ETH and other tokens regaining some footing, while the CoinDesk 20 index added almost 9% since midnight UTC.
Still, put options on bitcoin remain in demand, indicating a persistent bearish fear. It makes sense for a couple of key reasons: First, macroeconomic risks have eased, but not gone away. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed a funding bill to end the government shutdown, but the Department of Homeland Security’s cash runs out in eight days, meaning there could be another circus before February 14.
Meanwhile, oil prices are buoyant on both sides of the Atlantic on concerns that tensions between Iran and the United States will increase. An increase there could increase global inflation, triggering a flight to safety and weighing on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Most critically, the recent crisis has pushed many digital asset holders and treasuries into the water. Many of them may capitulate and become marginal sellers in the market, which could limit rallies. Additionally, confidence tends to recover slowly after a fall, which is why recoveries from snapbacks are always slow.
These things together indicate that the market may not be out of the woods yet. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- February 6, 8:30 am: Canada unemployment rate for January (previously 6.8%)
- February 6, 10 am: Canada Ivey PMI index for January (previous 51.9)
- February 6, 10am: Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for February (previous 56.4); Michigan Inflation Expectations (was 4%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- February 6: Chainlink will host an X Spaces session on “Building with the Chainlink Runtime.”
- Unlock
- February 6: hyperliquid to unlock 2.79% of its circulating supply worth $287.68 million.
- February 6: to unlock 41.7% of its circulating supply worth $26.87 million.
- Token releases
- February 6: MOVA (MOVA) will list on LBank, BingX, KuCoin, MEXC and others.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 4.55% as of 4 pm ET Thursday to $66,022.00 (24 hours: -6.74%)
- ETH is up 4.14% to $1,924.90 (24 hours: -7.3%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 4.75% to 1,905.03 (24 hours: -7.49%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 39 Basis Points to 3.48%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0142% (-15.5862% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 97.81
- Gold futures fall 0.19% to $4,880.30
- Silver futures down 4.39% to $73.35
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.81% at 54,253.68
- Hang Seng closed down 1.21% at 26,559.95
- The FTSE rises 0.01% to 10,309.76
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.27% to 5,941.80
- DJIA closed the On Thursday it fell 1.20% to 48,908.72
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.23% at 6,798.40
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.59% at 22,540.59
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.77% at 31,994.60
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 1.01% to 3,616.07
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 1.8 basis points to 4.192%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rise 0.3% to 6,841.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.36% to 24,740.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index futures rise 0.16% to 49,075.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.77% (+0.47%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (0.43%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.76
- Total fees: 5.59 BTC / $377,330
- CME Futures Open Interest: 115,230 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC market cap vs. gold: 4.4%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows weekly bitcoin price swings in candlestick format since 2019.
- Prices are quickly approaching their 200-week average, represented by the red line.
- BTC has consistently made bear market lows around this average, suggesting that the current pullback could be in its final stages.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $146.12 (-13.34%), +5.97% to $154.84 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $50.23 (-8.76%), +5.40% at $52.94
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $16.84 (-16.47%), +6.35% to $17.91
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $24.90 (-8.46%), +3.98% to $25.89
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $6.73 (-18.72%), +6.39% to $7.16
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $12.06 (-14.71%), +5.14% at $12.68
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.81 (-8.27%), +1.99% at $15.11
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.27 (-19.13%), -3.33% at $7.99
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.23 (-12.56%), +2.24% to $36.02
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.42 (-11.96%), -1.27% at $9.30
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $106.99 (-17.12%), +6.71% at $114.17
- Strive (ASST): closed at $9.86 (-16.75%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.07 (-14.27%), +4.12% to $6.32
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.09 (-19.85%), +7.34% to $1.17
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $0.95 (-10.27%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$434.1 million
- Accumulated net flows: $54.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$80.8 million
- Accumulated net flows: 11.86 billion dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~5.87 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
Bitcoin Back Above $65,000 After $700 Million Loss in Asia (Coindesk) – Bitcoin rebounded above $65,000 after its worst one-day drop since November 2022. Around $700 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated within a few hours.
Stocks falter as AI fears dominate market action (Reuters): Global markets retreated as an equity slump on Wall Street spread around the world, with volatility hitting precious metals and cryptocurrencies while AI fears weighed on stocks.
Weak earnings drag down IREN and Amazon; Bitcoin Stock Rebounds in Premarket (CoinDesk): IREN Earnings Were Weaker Than Expected, While Amazon Missed EPS Estimates and Beat Revenue.
Big Tech Will Spend $650 Billion This Year as AI Race Intensifies (Bloomberg): The high spending projections raise concerns about energy supply, prices and the potential distortion of economic data, raising questions about whether companies can afford the costs.
