By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are holding firm along with US stock futures as oil prices, bond yields and the dollar index decline on signs that US-Iran ceasefire talks could begin as early as Thursday.
Still, nothing is confirmed and, according to some observers, it may be too early to position yourself for a full return to normality.
“We are not experts in geopolitics, but we would have thought that Iran would have the maximum influence of high energy prices in any negotiations,” ING analysts said. “So it’s probably too early to expect a big drop in energy prices or a much weaker dollar this week.”
Skepticism also persists on the Iranian side. According to Axios, officials have told Pakistan, Egypt and Türkiye that recent US military moves have deepened suspicions that Trump’s peace proposal may be just a ruse.
Macroeconomic conditions are also becoming less favorable. The US money market curve has already ruled out any Fed easing this year, a sharp reversal from previous expectations of at least two 25 basis point cuts, which were seen as a key bullish catalyst for BTC and other risk assets.
On the cryptocurrency front, the news flow hasn’t helped either. Shares of Circle Internet (CRCL) fell on Tuesday after a leaked draft of the Clarity Act suggested limits on interest payments on dormant stablecoin balances. Meanwhile, Arkham Intelligence reported that Bhutan could be selling approximately $30 million worth of BTC, and that the government still holds 4,453 coins valued at approximately $315.9 million.
Despite these headwinds, bitcoin continues to remain above $70,000, and the declines are short-lived. A market that refuses to fall on negative news often indicates underlying strength, potentially setting the stage for a larger bullish move. The dynamics of the impending bitcoin options expiration on Friday point to a potential rebound to $75,000. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 25, 8:30 am: US monthly import prices for February estimated 0.2% (previously 0.2%); MoM export prices (previous 0.6%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlock
- March 25 – Humanity (H) will unlock 4.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.1 million.
- Token releases
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 2.21% since 4 pm ET on Tuesday to $71,509.33 (24 hours: +0.68%)
- ETH is up 2.99% to $2,184.78 (24 hours: +1.43%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 2.73% to 2,065.01 (24 hours: +0.93%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 basis points to 2.74%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0005% (0.4960% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.15% at 99.29
- Gold futures rise 3.13% to $4,536.90
- Silver futures rise 4.38% to $72.31
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 53,749.62
- Hang Seng closed up 1.09% at 25,335.95
- The FTSE 100 rises 0.85% to 10,049.44
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 1.39% to 5,658.96
- DJIA closed Tuesday down 0.18% at 46,124.06
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.37% at 6,556.37
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.84% at 21,761.89
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 31,941.59
- S&P Latin America 40 closed up 0.43% at 3,480.97
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 6 basis points to 4.39%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rise 0.68% to 6,651.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.86% to 24,422.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rise 0.67% to 46,727.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.97% (0.16%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03055 (-0.04%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $33.72
- Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $175,777
- CME Futures Open Interest: 116,345 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.7 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.77%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily swings in the bitcoin-gold ratio since July last year.
- The ratio has bounced 23% this month, indicating bitcoin’s outperformance relative to gold.
- However, the overall bitcoin bear market is still intact and the ratio has not yet surpassed the trend line representing the decline since August 2025.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $181.04 (-9.76%), +2.94% at $186.36 in premarket
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.25 (-7.41%), +3.52% to $8.54
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.33 (-0.28%), +2.72% to $14.72
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.85 (+1.63%), +2.43% at $17.26
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.58 (-4.01%), +2.61% to $9.83
- Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $7.20 (-11.33%), +6.39% to $7.66
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.87 (-1.35%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $101.17 (-20.11%), +3.04% to $104.25
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.37 (-5.51%), +1.61% to $37.97
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $136.25 (-1.41%), +2.97% at $140.29
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.17 (-4.53%), +3.63% to $7.43
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.30 (-1.84%), +2.58% at $21.85
- Strive Asset Management, LLC (ASST): closed at $9.93 (-4.89%), +2.01% to $10.13
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.11 (-5.13%), +2.70% at $1.14
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+1.69%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$66.6 million
- Accumulated net flows: $56.31 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$40.7 million
- Accumulated net flows: 11.7 billion dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~5.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
