Bitcoin is holding up better than it probably should.
The largest cryptocurrency was trading at $67,378 on Monday morning, up 1.1% over the past 24 hours and virtually flat for the week, while the world around it deteriorated sharply.
Among major stocks, ether rose 2.3% to $1,981, sitting just below $2,000. BNB gained 1.4% to $624. Dogecoin added 1.8% to $0.09. Solana rose 1.8% to $83.69, but is still down 1.5% for the week, and remains the weakest major in seven days. XRP was stable at $1.35, down 1% on the week.
S&P 500 futures fell more than 2% in Asian trading. The VIX rose to its highest level since the April tariff turmoil. Oil is above $100. The dollar just posted its biggest weekly gain in a year.
Meanwhile, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a US market crash to 35%, up from 20%, while lowering the odds of a crash to just 5%.
“The US economy and stock market are caught between Iran and a difficult situation,” Yardeni wrote. “If the oil shock persists, the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate would be bogged down between the growing risk of higher inflation and rising unemployment.”
Under crisis conditions, risk assets in general tend to suffer as investors withdraw capital from anything with volatility and into cash, Treasuries or the dollar. Historically, Bitcoin has not been immune to that dynamic, falling along with stocks during every major episode of risk aversion since 2020, despite its reputation as a hedge.
Separately, NYDIG head of research Greg Cipolaro offered a framework for understanding bitcoin’s price action compared to U.S. stocks in a note on Friday.
Cipolaro argued that bitcoin’s recent parallel move with US software stocks reflects a “shared exposure to the current macro regime” rather than structural convergence.
Statistically, only about 25% of bitcoin price movements are explained by correlation with stocks. The other 75% is driven by factors outside of traditional stock indices, he said.
The overall equity outlook remains bleak. MSCI’s global stock indicator fell 3.7% last week, with Asia taking the brunt. South Korea has yet to fully recover from its record two-day slide. Hedge funds have been boosting short positions in U.S. stock ETFs. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose six basis points as traders priced in higher inflation due to the oil shock.
The United States has fared better than most on the equity side, with the S&P 500 falling just 2% last week, in part because American energy self-sufficiency insulates it more than Asian or European markets.
But the 2% drop in futures on Monday suggests the cushion is narrowing.
