Amid recent bearish price action, headline on Citigroup’s 12-month outlook for bitcoin of $143,000, or about 62% more than the current $88,000, will surprise some.
“We anticipate increased adoption of digital assets, driven by potential US digital asset legislation in the second quarter, with bitcoin likely to reach a user activity value of between $80,000 and $90,000 in the new year,” Citi analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer and Vinh Vo said in their joint report.
They said to keep an eye on the $70,000 level as key support, noting that it was roughly the price of bitcoin just before Donald Trump’s election victory in 2024.
Their 12-month base case is a sharp rise to $143,000, driven, they said, by reviving ETF demand and positive stock market forecasts. Regulatory catalysts, particularly the passage and signing of the Clarity Act (already passed in the House), should drive greater adoption and funding flows, they added.
But there is also a bearish case, and the group sets that target at a low of $78,500, or a drop of more than 10% from current levels. They believe that a global recession would be the catalyst.
The bullish scenario would be $189,000, or more than double current levels, and that would be thanks to increased demand from end investors, they said.
