The Bitcoin Spot ETF saw considerable tickets in the first quarter despite the lame price action and at least one analyst sees the next three months even larger, even if prices do not recover.
“Even if the current conditions of the market persist in the second quarter, we are seeing a strong traction of financial advisors and institutional investors,” said Juan Leon, senior strategist of investment in Bitwise (whose BitB is among the Bitcoin ETFs).
“While the retail interest is weak due to the setting of the price action, professional investors are recognizing the impulse of global adoption stimulated by the hug of the Trump administration of Bitcoin, and many are seeing these market conditions as an opportunity to begin or increase an allocation,” Leon added.
The ETFS saw more than $ 1 billion in tickets in the first quarter of the year despite a challenging macro situation that sent the S&P 500 index to its greater quarterly loss since 2022 and the 13% fall of Bitcoin.
Leon expects tickets to be even stronger in the second quarter, up to $ 3 billion or even more as the unlocking of Wirehouse platforms and legislative policy progress.
ETF tickets possibly less than it seems
The $ 1 billion in the net flows of the first quarter, and whatever the second quarter, does not necessarily reflect the interest of investors in buying the Bitcoin sauce. That is due to the so -called base trade (also known as effective and transport). In this, institutional players buy the spot Bitcoin ETF while cutting the CME Bitcoin futures, collecting performance without exposure to price movement.
That performance was fine in both digits at the end of 2024 and remained very well above the risk -free rate for much of the first quarter. The 5% area is collapsed in recent times, suggesting that ETF inputs related to arbitration can dry.
Bull Case again: it’s still early
“While a favorable price environment would undoubtedly be an impulse, it is important to remember that the adoption of ETF of Bitcoin Spot for these groups is still in their childhood,” said Nate Geraci, president of the ETF store, which is also bullish in the entrance perspectives for the rest of the year.
Although many institutions have already made their first assignments in Bitcoin in the last year, it represents only a small fraction of investment in ETF, and most of the money still comes from retail investors, something recently indicated by the Blackrock CEO, Larry Fink, whose Ibit is the leader of asset collection among the ETF Spot. However, the most favorable regulatory position towards the industry, not to mention the government’s own potential allocation to Bitcoin, means that the relationship could soon change significantly.
During an ETF conference in Las Vegas earlier this month, a survey showed that 57% of the advisors plan to increase their assignments to Cripto ETF this year, since Crypto has lost its attribute of “risk of reputation” among the advisors.
The opinion that Bitcoin could serve as a “safe refuge” in the time of an economic decline, of which investors remain anxious, could also increase confidence in the asset, especially as the fears of a possible recession grow.
“If we see the continuous expectations of rate reduction, the signs of economic uncertainty or the deep fears of a possible recession in the United States, Bitcoin’s role as ‘digital gold’ will probably support additional tickets,” said David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets. “While some short -term merchants can rotate if the weakness of prices persists, the long -term players will continue to maintain strong tickets, especially as institutional adoption takes off and drives demand throughout the year.”
