Bitcoin traded around $68,780 on Tuesday as US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their biggest daily inflow in more than a month.
The funds added a combined total of $471 million on April 6, according to SoSoValue data, marking the largest inflow since Feb. 25 and the sixth-largest daily total this year. The figure remains below the peak flow regime of January, when several trading days exceeded $700 million.
These high inflows come as bitcoin remains stuck below $70,000, with weak spot demand and distribution by large holders limiting upside. ETFs have increasingly offset that pressure, acting as a primary source of margin buying.
Macro signals offer limited direction. Markets are pricing in a 98% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady at its April meeting, according to data from Polymarket, with minimal expectations for cuts or increases in the near term.
Bitcoin’s relationship with global monetary policy may be changing, as ETFs are changing not only the scale of demand but also their timing.
A recent report from Binance Research finds that bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned sharply negative since 2024, the same year US spot ETFs were approved. Before that, bitcoin tended to follow easing cycles with a lag. That relationship has now changed, with the reverse effect almost three times stronger.
The change reflects who sets the marginal price. Retail once reacted to macroeconomics after the fact. Institutional flows driven by ETFs are more forward-looking and positioned ahead of expected policy measures.
“BTC may have evolved from a macro ‘laggard taker’ to a ‘leading price setter,’” Binance Research wrote.
ETF inflows continue to absorb supply and anchor prices, which could explain the continued daily inflow.
If what Binance Research proposes comes to pass, bitcoin can continue to trade as a forward-looking asset, with the price at the central bank pivoting ahead of traditional markets rather than reacting to them after the fact.
